Intraday Market Thoughts

Euro Seen Supported & Link to Ashraf's Tuesday Webinar

by Adam Button
Jun 19, 2012 0:43

You have to wonder what would have happened to the euro if New Democracy had lost the Greek election. Early euro gains were reversed on Monday but the risk-sensitive Australian dollar continued higher to lead the market. The RBA minutes are the highlight of the Asia-Pacific session. Details on Mondays Premium Insights are below, as well as the link to Ashrafs Tuesday webinar previewing the FOMC statement.

Euro worries emerged after Spanish 10-year yields hit fresh cycle highs at 7.28%. The extreme borrowing costs suggest a bailout is increasingly likely, if not inevitable. European leaders are increasingly warming to eurobonds or eurobills but the timeline is likely too long to calm the current periphery fears.

US and some European officials appear to be willing to compromise with the new Greek leadership. A likely outcome is a two-year extension of austerity program deadlines. Comments from Merkel suggested a continued hard line.

An early leak of the G20 communique says European leaders have agreed to take all necessary policy measures to end the crisis.


Economic data was light but the NAHB home builder index was at +29 compared to +28 expected. The S&P 500 climbed 0.1% to 1345.

The Asia-Pacific session is light but at 0130 GMT, the minutes of the June 5 meeting where the RBA lowered rates 25 basis points to 3.50% will be released. That statement included talk about further weakening in European and a slowdown in China. More details will be welcome.

RBA Governor Stevens most-recent comments focused on the grumpiness of consumers and weak productivity.

Monday mornings Premium Insights saw both EURUSD and US crude stopped out, while positions on AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and Gold remain in progress. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here: NONsubscribers can join here:



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