Intraday Market Thoughts

Dollar Longs at Lowest Since 2011

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 19, 2012 21:16

Trading grinded to a close on Friday, ending one of the quietest weeks of the year. On the day, the US dollar led and the Australian dollar lagged. The weekly CFTC positioning data showed overall US dollar positions at the most negative in 10 months. 6 of last weeks Premium Insights remain in progress, including the change of bias in 2 gold ideas. More below.

Economic news was light on Friday. The euro found some life after a lawmaker from Merkels party said they were considering easing Greek bailout terms but that the government was torn. The euro climbed to 1.2360 on the report but then faded below 1.23 on position squaring ahead of the weekend, even as Spanish borrowing costs continued to fall.

The US dollar was slightly stronger after the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose to 73.6 from 72.3.

The Canadian dollar lagged after CPI rose just 1.3% year-over-year, less than the 1.5% expected and re-kindling talk of BOC rate cuts if the US economy stumbles.

The US stock market edged higher and the DJIA closed at the highest since 2007. The S&P 500 is near the same mark and the VIX also fell to the lowest since 2007. The overall market seems complacent relative to the abundance of risks in September.

The weekly CFTC position data showed a general move away from US dollar longs with commodity currencies making a strong move.

EUR shorts 137K vs 132K prior

JPY longs 31K vs 28K

GBP flat vs short 8K prior

AUD longs 67K vs 53K prior

CAD longs 29K vs 19K prior

6 of last weeks Premium Insights remain in progress, including the change of bias in 2 gold ideas. 1 of 2 EURUSD Premium longs hit their final and so did oil and AUDJPY, while USDJPY. 1 GBPUSD, EURUSD, both gold and CADJPY are all in progress, while the other GBPUSD was stopped out Direct Access to these Insights is found here: access/?a=675 Non subscribers can click here:


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