Archived IMT (2009.04.01)

Yen holds up despite Japan's Tankan sentiment survey fell to a record low of -58 vs expectations of -55. We mentioned earlier this week that dismal Tankan surveys have historically failed to weigh on the yen after their release mainly due to the positive yen impact from falling equities. The subsequent turnaround in Nikkei is now capping yen gains. Aussie dropped across the board after retail fell 2.0% in Feb vs exp of +0.3%. On the positive side, Aussie residential approvals rose 7.8% after back to back declines. Aussie traders will find long term positives in the latest USDA report showing US farmers to reduce total acres with corn, soybeans and wheat this year. Planned wheat plantings to drop 7.1% from last year when seedings were the highest in 10 years. Chapter 8 of my book shows the relationship between the Aussie and prices of wheat dur to Australia's major global role in growing the crop.