Archived IMT (2009.09.10)

The unexpected 27K decline in Australian August payrolls is the third negative data surprise in 2 days, following declines in retail sales and home lending. The data dampen premature speculation of an RBA hike to occur as early as next month. Aussie is off its 0.8638 high as are all the currencies against the USD. We stick with our interim 1.09 target on USDCAD ahead of the BoC rate announcement due at 13:00 GMT. Oil continues to fail at the 72.40 resistance, but a breach above it remains limited at 73.20. Todays EIA inventory data (instead of usual Wednesdays) expected to show a drop of 1.5-1.8 million barrels in crude oil. BoE announcement due at 11:00 GMT (12:00 BST). Downside risks loom large for AUD and CAD.