Archived IMT (2009.09.14)

Tomorrow's release of Aug CPI from UK & US and Aug retail sales from the US bears more importance than Germanys Sep ZEW index. The prevailing slowdown in global inflation has emerged from China to the US, which has forced central bankers to maintain policy stimuli. UK annual CPI is seen +1.4% from 1.8%. US retail sales are seen recovering 1.9% from -0.1% with +0.4% in sales ex autos from -0.6%. But with market players aware that such a rebound is mainly driven by the cash-for-clunker programs boost for autos and gasoline, market reaction may not be as cheerful. Notably, excluding cars and gasoline, US retail sales decreased for 5 consecutive months. GBPUSD reallies are limited to $1.6630 trendline resistance, while EURGBP faces interim pressure at 0.8835-40, a break of which leads to the 9-mth trend line resistance of 0.8880.