Intraday Market Thoughts

AUD On Top But China PMI Up Next

by Adam Button
Mar 23, 2014 22:10

The Australian dollar was the top performer last week as it rode a wave of risk appetite and quickly shook of hawkish comments from the Fed. The challenge to start the week is Chinese data with the HSBC manufacturing PMI out shortly after the market open.

The flash China PMI is due at 0145 GMT and is expected at 48.7 compared to the 48.5 final reading in February. Some weakness in February Chinese data was blamed on the Lunar New Year holidays so don't rule out a snap back above 50.

Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.
  • EUR +53 vs +36K prior
  • JPY -62K vs -99K prior
  • GBP +26K vs +22K prior
  • AUD -24K vs -40K prior
  • CAD -70K vs -52K prior
  • CHF +15K vs +9K prior
Yen shorts threw in the towel just before Janet & Co threw them a lifeline. Still, comments from the BOJ don't sound like a central bank ready with more stimulus and episodes or risk appetite haven't boosted USD/JPY like in the past.

The other move was to pile into Canadian dollar shorts after Poloz warned about a soft Q1, soft inflation and didn't rule out rate cuts. Inflation on Friday wasn't so soft and a few traders were caught off-guard but USD/CAD recovered most of the initial losses by the end of the day.


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