Britain Breaks Brexit Law
Cable fell more than 100 pips Monday after Johnson set an Oct 15 deadline for the framework of a deal. So far progress on the stick parts of an agreement has been almost nil.
Even worse, the EU warned Johnson against reneging on parts of the withdrawal agreement after his government drew up new rules that could violate pledges on Northern Ireland. The UK PM said he is willing to walk away rather than compromise on core Brexit principles.
For now the market is showing some concern but we've been through the threats so many times before. Brinksmanship is part of the game and all of the tabloid-driven fearmongering has hardly bruised the economy over the past three years.
The makes it more of a question of when to buy a dip, not when to sell a rally. Near term eyes will be on 1.30 followed by 1.28.
The US and Canada are back from holiday on Tuesday but the economic calendar is empty.
CFTC Commitments of TradersSpeculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.
EUR +197K vs +212K prior GBP +6K vs +5K prior JPY +30K vs +24K prior CHF +12K vs +12K prior CAD -27K vs -29K prior AUD 0K vs -4K prior NZD +7K vs +4K priorThere is a large concentrated bet in EUR/USD but little else on the speculative front. Note that every currency is in a net long position versus the US dollar, except CAD and AUD.
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