Intraday Market Thoughts

CAD on the Cusp

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 11, 2023 16:13

USDCAD is back down below 1.3500, not quite hitting the final Head and Shoulders target mentioned to our WhatsApp Broadcast Group members on Nov 4th [see chart below]. So what is next for the pair? Last Friday, Canada had a stellar jobs report from with employment rising (full-time and part time), unemployment falling and the participation rate gaining. See how each USDCAD rebound above the neckline failed to break the right shoulder of 1.37 during market selloffs (risk-off). Any renewed episode of market selling (possibly a strong CPI tomorrow) could lift the pair back to 1.3480/90s. Yet, my position remains unchanged (as it has since Nov 4th). Will the next phase of USD selling take us to 1.3170? What's so special about 1.3170 apart from it being a H&S targetMost pertinently, there is a unique relationship between USDCAD and its 200-DMA, which makes a retest of the average an inevitability. If you want to learn how incorporate interFX and intermarket analysis such as using the CNH H&S as a reference for your positioning alongside XAUUSD, then come to my private seminar in London this Saturday. There will be several fellow traders, a 3-course lunch from The Gherkin restaurant and a free autographed copy of my book, not to mention trading account incentives from our sponsor. 

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CAD on the Cusp - Whatsapp Usdcad Nov 11 2022 (Chart 1)


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