Intraday Market Thoughts

Dax Overtakes Euro on Greece Optimism

by Ashraf Laidi
Jun 23, 2015 16:00

The euro-Dax-bunds relationship continues in full swing, led by a rallying Dax and rest of Eurozone bourses resulting from the most notable steps taken by Greece towards reaching a deal with creditors in four months.

The euro's initial rally to $1.1410 following yesterday's comments from EU's Juncker that Athens' proposal was an important step forward, but later gave up gains as other EU officials as as well as IMF's Lagarde indicated that no final agreement would be ironed out by Wednesday's summit.  Bourses continued to rally but the euro ignored strong June flash Eurozone PMIs and weaker than expected US May durable goods orders due two possible reasons:

i) Further diminishing of Greece Risk supports European stocks and returns euro to its previous role as a funding currency for higher yielding bets (equities, corporate bonds and currencies).

ii) Continued ECB purchases of Eurozone bonds keep euro under pressure to the benefit of already bolstered German equities/economy as fund managers return to hedging euro exposure by selling euro forward contracts.

10-year bund yields are modestly lower, but this is unlikely to last if Eurozone indicators remains on the rise and if optimism in Eurozone stocks and macro data translates into a more rapid normalisation of Eurozone inflation especially as the ECB keeps EUR60 bn monthly purchases on autopilot.

Yet, the more pressing relation remains between stocks and the euro. As the DAX-30 and Eurostoxx break out of their April trendline resistance, coinciding with a double breakout above their 55 and 100 day moving averages, then the potential for further gains could weigh on the single currency. One exception to this assessment would be renewed gains in bund yields relative to their US counterpart.

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Dax Overtakes Euro on Greece Optimism - Dax Eurusd Bunds June 22 2015 (Chart 1)

Act Exp Prev GMT
Markit US Manufacturing PMI (JUN) [P]
53.4 54.1 54.0 Jun 23 13:45
Eurozone Markit Services PMI (JUN) [P]
54.4 53.6 53.8 Jun 23 8:00
Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (JUN) [P]
54.1 53.5 53.6 Jun 23 8:00
Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing (JUN) [P]
52.5 52.2 52.2 Jun 23 8:00
Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing (JUN) [P]
51.9 51.3 51.1 Jun 23 7:30
Germany Markit Services PMI (JUN) [P]
54.2 53.0 53.0 Jun 23 7:30
Germany Markit PMI Composite (JUN) [P]
54.0 52.6 Jun 23 7:30
Durable Goods Orders (MAY)
-1.8% -1.0% -1.5% Jun 23 12:30
Durables Ex Transportation (MAY)
0.5% 0.5% -0.3% Jun 23 12:30

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