Intraday Market Thoughts

Euro Slides, Big Questions

by Adam Button
Dec 6, 2017 14:25

The euro tested the 100-day moving average as the market sorts through political and central bank questions. The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the euro lagged. The Bank of Canada is due shortly. Earlier in Asia, Australian Q3 GDP grew by less than expected, promptinng broad AUD selloff. The BOC decision later, with less than 20% chance of rate hike expected, but expect an optimistic spin. US ADP weakened to 190K as expected. The Premium CAD trade remains in the green.

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Euro Slides, Big Questions - Eurcad Daily Dwec 6 2017 (Chart 1)

Economic data on Tuesday featured the ISM non-manufacturing index. It slipped to 57.4 from a 12-year high of 60.1. The reading was below the 59.0 expected but the market hardly moved on the results because hurricane effects were the likely driver.

More broadly, the market is pondering three big questions. The first is what is next for global central banks. A series of decisions are due in the next 9 days and that will clarify the path for rates next year. The second is the US tax reform bill. The details are what matter now and small changes are driving the US equity market, with sentiment also swinging back and forth, with the usual pre-Santa rally selloff in view. Thirdly, even if those questions are answered, year-end flows could swamp fundamentals and leave the market vulnerable.

On the central banking front, the RBA offered some hints at what coming. Lowe talked about improving global growth and how that is an upside risk for inflation.

The BOC is up next to weigh in on the global outlook. The market is pricing in a 17% chance of a hike. That's high but understandable given past BOC surprises. If they hold, a CAD rally can't be ruled out if they signal a more hawkish stance in 2018. Currently a hike is 70% priced in for March.

Act Exp Prev GMT
GDP (q/q)
0.6% 0.7% 0.9% Dec 06 0:30
Eurozone Revised GDP (q/q)
0.6% 0.6% Dec 07 10:00
ADP Employment Change
190K 189K 235K Dec 06 13:15

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