Intraday Market Thoughts

Greece Gets Testy, Yen Shorts Jump Again

by Adam Button
Jun 7, 2015 23:41

Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker sent the clearest message yet that Greek talks are deteriorating as he refused to take a weekend call from Tsipras. Up next, it's a round of economic data from Japan, including GDP revisions. CFTC positioning data showed a second consecutive jump in yen shorts.

A newswire source said Juncker refused to take the phone call Saturday because Greece hasn't yet delivered proposals that were promised to be delivered Thursday. It's a strong signal that both sides are frustrated.

On Sunday, Juncker took another stab at Tsipras saying “in order to remain friends one has to respect some minimum rules.” The turmoil could weigh on the euro at some point Monday but it's only down a handful of pips in early trading.

Up next, a busy round of economic data hits at 2350 GMT when Japan releases its final revisions to Q1 GDP. Early estimates were middling but revisions have been consistently higher and the final look is expected to boost the pace of growth to 2.8% from 2.4%. It's likely to be another dagger to those looking for more QE this year.

Current account, bank lending and trade balance numbers will be reported at the same time.

It's a holiday in Australia.

Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR -165K vs -172K prior

JPY -86K vs -62K prior

GBP -26K vs -26K prior

AUD -13K vs +6K prior 

CAD -1K vs +4K prior

CHF +8K vs +8K prior

Just two weeks ago, the market was nearly neutral on the yen but the breakout in dollar has traders piling in. That helps to explain why the dips have been narrow and have been bought aggressively. No doubt the trade is even more crowded after non-farm payrolls.

Also note that CAD and AUD have flipped to short from long, but the market has done a middling job of staying on the right side of that trade.

 Our latest Premium trades include EURUSD, issued on Friday and a new note and charts updating the existing EURCAD trade.
Act Exp Prev GMT
GDP Annualized (Q1)
2.4% Jun 07 23:50
GDP (Q1) (q/q)
0.6% Jun 07 23:50
GDP Deflator (Q1) (y/y)
3.4% Jun 07 23:50
Current Account n.s.a. (APR)
¥2,795.3B Jun 07 23:50
Bank lending (MAY) (y/y)
2.6% Jun 07 23:50
Trade Balance - BOP Basis (APR)
¥671.4B Jun 07 23:50

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