Markets can no longer wait
Much has been said and promised by president Trump and French Independent presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron. Now it's time for details. In the case of the US, the Fed has become not only increasingly tight-lipped with regards to Trump's fiscal plans (Yellen's 2-day testimony last week and this week's FOMC minutes), but the Fed's lack of certainty on the topic will begin to impact its ability to make forecasts. In addition to Friday's Yellen/Fischer speeches, look out for Tuesday's event risk (coinciding with month-end flows):
Super Trump Tuesday: Markets will shift attention to next Tuesday's Trump's address to the joint session of Congress Feb 28, expected to unveil more details on the border adjustment tax. The implications for labour costs, consumer prices and the budget deficit are considerable for the Fed and the US economy.
In the case of France (& euro), Macron has climbed in the polls to the extent of dampening market fears of a Le Pen victory, but lately, he has been criticized for failing to provide a coherent set of campaign promises -- something he pledged to clarify by next week. France-German spreads starting to matter to the extent that they have turned inversely correlated with the euro. This has several implications: i) Forcing the ECB to carry out asymmetric QE policy by focusing on French bonds at a time when inflation is on the rise. ii) As the 10-year France-Germany spread hits 5-year highs, the euro is unable to hold on to its daily session gains, which will raise the issue of currency depreciation with the US.
23 days after we issued our SILVER long, backed by 6 factors, we have just issued a new set of 6 technical factors and 3 fundamental forces underpinning the trade in our Premium Insights.
Reflation Goes off the Rails
by Adam Button | Jun 18, 2021 20:30
Fed Shift Boosts Dollar, Yen Holds
by Adam Button | Jun 17, 2021 14:48
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 17, 2021 14:45
تسجيل ندوة أمس قبل الفدرالي
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 16, 2021 16:43
Watch the 2023 Dots
by Adam Button | Jun 16, 2021 15:03