Intraday Market Thoughts

Onto Aussie Jobs Report

by Adam Button
Mar 14, 2013 0:14

Aussie Feb Employment is due at 12:30 GMT. Upbeat US retail sales boosted the US dollar at the expense of the euro on Wednesday. The RBNZ held rates at 2.50% but lamented the pain of a strong New Zealand dollar. Headlines from the session ahead will be dominated by the selection of a new Pope but a pair of key economic data points will also be released.See our Latest Premium Insights for the AUDJPY and AUDUSD trades.

The US economy continues to add momentum. On Wednesday it was from consumers, who boosted retail sales 1.0% in February compared to 0.5% expected. A rise in business inventories also caused analysts to hike Q1 GDP forecasts.

The euro broke below 1.30 on the release and continued as low as 1.2922 but later bounced to 1.2960. USD/JPY also gained a half-cent but later retreated to 96.00.

The action started early in Asia-Pacific trading as New Zealand's central bank surprised markets with a dovish statement. The RBNZ noted signs of stronger growth since December but warned that the 'overvalued' NZD undermines export profits and committed to keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. Governor Wheeler said the RBNZ could even cut rates if the New Zealand dollar rose for reasons not justified by economic fundamentals.

The kiwi dollar immediately fell a full cent after the release

The focus now shifts to a key release for Australian as AUD/USD flirts with 1.03. At 0030 GMT, the February Australian employment report is expected to show 9K new jobs and the unemployment rate ticking to 5.5% from 5.4%. The full-time/part-time split is always important with the Aussie jobs report and a disappointing number could reverse recent AUD optimtims.

At 0430 GMT, the focus shifts to Japanese industrial production, which is expected to rise 1.0% month-over-month.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Core Retail Sales (m/m)
1.0% 0.2% 0.4% Mar 13 12:30
Retail Sales (m/m)
1.1% 0.5% 0.2% Mar 13 12:30
Business Inventories (JAN)
1.0% 0.4% 0.3% Mar 13 14:00
Industrial Production (JAN) (m/m)
Mar 14 4:30
Industrial Production (JAN) (y/y)
-7.9% Mar 14 4:30
Industrial Production s.a. (JAN) (m/m)
-0.4% -0.1% 0.9% Mar 13 10:00
Industrial Production w.d.a. (JAN) (y/y)
-1.3% -2.2% -1.7% Mar 13 10:00
Employment Change s.a. (FEB)
9.0K 10.4K Mar 14 0:30
Fulltime employment (FEB)
-9.8 Mar 14 0:30
Part-time employment (FEB)
20.2 Mar 14 0:30
Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)
5.5% 5.4% Mar 14 0:30
Employment Change (Q4) (q/q)
-0.2% Mar 14 10:00
Employment Change (Q4) (y/y)
-0.7% Mar 14 10:00

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