RBA & Boris Johnson Reversal from Covid
The best-laid plans in all walks of life have been derailed by covid in the past 18 months. This is the case for Boris Johnson's tax policy and the RBA's monetary policy. The latter had explicitly outlined a taper, but lockdowns with no end are reshaping the path of the economy along with the same bottlenecks that are weighing everywhere.
RBA QE is running at $5 billion per week and a month ago there was a strong consensus they would lower that to $4 billion. 10 of 16 economists told Bloomberg they were expecting a delay in the taper. There was uncertainty after stronger than expected employment figures, but persistent warnings of an economic slowdown owing to the lockdowns took priority. Compounding the downside risk is the rapid recent run-up and potential for consolidation.Longs in EURGBP, USDCAD and shorts in AUDJPY appear to be sensibe trading ideas.
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