Intraday Market Thoughts

CAD Swings as Trump Quits Iran Deal

by Adam Button
May 9, 2018 1:11

Donald Trump fulfilled a campaign promise by announcing the US departure from the Iran nuclear deal in a move thatwas largely expected but still sent oil traders for a ride. The Swiss franc was the top performer while the commodity currencies lagged. The latest Premium Video signals which trades Ashraf will be taking on Wednesday (ahead of Thursday's CPI and Friday's Canada jobs) as well featuring the 6-week curse trade. More importantly, he tackles the importance of figuring out how much of USD gain is caused by EM Selloff and unwinding of EM-USD carry.

After weeks of speculation and international lobbying, Trump opted to quit the Iran deal, formally known as JCPOA. Throughout the day Tuesday, rumors and denials bounced WTI crude oil prices around. From as high as $70.40 to as low as $67.63 before ultimately finishing close to unchanged and near $70. Monday's high of $70.76 will be a key level to watch in the days ahead.

Other markets also fluctuated out of genuine fear or elation. One reason for the largely-muted market reaction suggested there is still room for negotiation. The sanctions have mandatory 90-day and 180-day notice periods to give companies a chance to tidy up so nothing has been imposed yet. In his announcement, Trump invited Iran back to the negotiating table at any future point.

Another interesting move was in USD/CAD as the pair rallied to 1.2998 as oil dropped to the lows of the day. The inability to break above followed by a slide down to 1.2948 suggests firm resistance ahead of the big figure. The pair rallied after hitting its H&S target of 1.25. Does the current rally comprise an inverse H&S? Ashraf answers this in the Premium video.


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