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From GreenShoots to Head&Shoulders

by Ashraf Laidi
Jul 14, 2009 17:18 | 19 Comments

From GreenShoots to Head&Shoulders - SPX Jul 14 (Chart 1)

As the buzzword shifts from Greenshoots to Head & Shoulders, lets take a look at that H&S formation in the S&P500. The all important trend line of 877 was tested 4 times last week before a break out ensued on Monday based on Meredith Whitneys buy rating on GS. Before testing the right shoulder (resistance) of 930, S&P must first overcome the 55-day MA (currently at 908), followed by the June 11 trend line resistance stands of 916. Much has been said about the notion that excessive media coverage on the H&S pattern reduces the likelihood of the pattern materializing into its bearish path. A decisive break (close) below 875, will eye interim support at 840, before the interpolated target of 810. For the bulls, the importance of "saving" the 877 neckline is paramound, just as it is vital for the bears to hold below 930.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 19) View All Comments
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
16 years ago
Jul 19, 2009 23:20
Cougr,
thanks for sharing this experience of inverted head and shoulder, though the right shoulder is not yet completed well. Even not only in DOW or SP, you can have it in every major index from emerging to Euroland. The pattern is same.
Regards,
Rajib.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
16 years ago
Jul 19, 2009 11:58
Whilst many of us have focused on the small head and shoulders pattern developing since May ,we've missed the larger reverse head and shoulders developing since last Nov evident on both the S&P and Dow.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jul 16, 2009 16:33
Morgan, take a look at 4-hr chart of AUDCAD which shows opportunity for repetitive shorts at subsequent bounces. ie current level of 0.8950s looks like a good short towards 0.8900.

Ashraf
J. Morgan
United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jul 16, 2009 15:37
@Ashraf:

That was a nice call on the AUDCAD down to 0.8940. Where does it go from here today? Are you still a bear on it?

Jay.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jul 16, 2009 13:37
Gun, Jobless c laims fall well below 600K and 4-week Mov Avg drops below 600K for 1st time since Feb thats GOOD NEWS FOR ECONOMY, MARKETS AND BAD NEWS FOR USD AND JPY. HENCE EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP RALLYING VS USD AND JPY. we should see S&P knife higher past 935 and attempt to test 945s later in week

Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
16 years ago
Jul 16, 2009 11:39
SPX back through 932...Ashraf do you believe this rally has got any further to go ( JPM, BOFA results etc), though I'm still long SPX am not convinced.

Thanks
Gunjack
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 23:41
Wolf, the 877 neckline in S&P500 was not considered a proper break as we never broke below it.

Ashraf
Forexwolf
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 39
16 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 22:30
The DJI & SP500 went thru their respective necklines. Not much though.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
16 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 16:52
@Carlco why miss out...I think we could see SPX hitting 930 and maybe a few pips on top of that, it's already touched 926. Agree it's not a big swing but it all goes to my summer holiday fund : )
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
16 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 16:32
gunjack you want to play a 12pip upside ? on a right shoulder? good luck. I was just about to ask the opposite that with ftse dow both gaining we only see a small gain in S&P. With results not offering anything more than we really deep down expected and nearing the top of our ranges, i am looking to a retreat, USD strength, dip in oil again. But it's more a coin flip, but not much more GBPUSD 16437 as i write this.
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