أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 9 يوليو2013
Jul 9, 2013 16:10
Historically, markets rallied as the Fed transitioned from interest rate cuts to a neutral policy stance. The principal reason a central bank pauses from easing is the stabilization of economic growth. As the data transitions from stability to expansion, the central bank reduces stimulus, allowing economic and business green shoots transform into full bloom. And thus, it is no surprise that the S&P500 rise during periods of neutral monetary policy following interest rate cuts.
Sep '92 to Jan '94: S&P500 +15%
Nov '98 to May '99: S&P500 +16%
June '03 to May '04: S&P500 +18%
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Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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