أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 06 نوفمبر2012
Nov 6, 2012 15:43
Ashraf Laidi tells CNBC Arabia to avoid making simplistic if-then scenario analysis on the US elections for US equities due to the presence of three major elements:
1) Potentially positive market implications of Obama keeping pro-QE Bernanke, likely offsetting classical partisan implications for equities. 2) Implications of Romney threatening trade war retaliation with China as a consequence of labelling Beijing as a currency manipulator (which is a USD negative).
3) Interaction between the new White House and Congressional balance of power and its impact on averting the Fiscal Cliff.
A lot has happened since I posted this XME/XLE chart from 3 weeks ago (click on this link and scroll down). Gold is a little stronger vs oil with XME/XLE ratio at 0.59 and the RSI is now testing the trendline resistance. As a reminder, XME is a major ETF for metals & mining stocks, while XLE is the biggest ETF for energy firms. Why am I mentioning this now? Metals (specifically gold) could further be boosted by the necessity for nations (especially oil-importers) to preserve the value of their monetary reserves against oil. Regardless of whether these nations are from the industrialized or less developed world, they must preserve their purchasing power of oil. See whatGhana agreed with the UAE about paying for their oil with gold in my tweetearlier this week. OPEC will be closely watching the ouctome of next week's EU discussions of the G7 price cap on Russian oil exports. Any prolonged decline in oil prices will see OPEC rushing to cut supplies, which would affirm the importance of stocking up on those few monetary/nonmonetary reserves that maintain their value relative to oil. And that would be no other than gold. Watch the RSI on XME/XLE.