VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 22, 2009 3:37 | 852 Comments

Just when we started highlighting the case for peaking risk appetite in last week's article, oil prices picked up the mantle for the bulls and triggered the sell USD, buy risk trade, partly caused by a plunge in weekly crude oil inventories. The previously unimaginable break above $74 per barrel has taken place this week, courtesy of growth optimism from better than expected Eurozone PMI figures and the 4th straight monthly increase in US existing home sales. But with currencies such as GBP and CAD solely rallying on the USD-side of the equation, their secular lack of fundamental strength has led to rapid reversals off their highs. FX markets are reluctant to retain any gains in risk currencies (currencies with high positive correlation with equities such as GBP, CAD, AUD and EUR).

Market participants are increasingly aware that intermittent bouts of risk appetite remain largely driven by inventory-related price jumps in oil rather than signs of improved demand or upside economic surprises. Consequentially, energy-related members of major equity indices have dominated the advancers.

Oil's Resistance & VIX Support


But with equities dealing a powerful Friday blow to the bears by hitting fresh highs for the year, we need to take a longer perspective for the general pulse of risk appetite, looking for any red flags lurking in the technical horizon. The charts below show $74.59 on oil and 23.00 on the VIX both mark their respective 200-week moving averages, thereby, serving as the underpinnings of any limitations in prolonged risk appetite. The almost perfectly horizontal shape of the oils 200-week MA manifests a relatively flat trend, which also suggests a mean-reverting trend for the fuel.

These long term measures of volatility and crude are especially vital for gauging the next destination in strengthening appetite, especially after the S&P500 closed the day at 1,026, well above the 1,014 resistance, which is the 38% retracement of the decline from the all time high of October 2007 to the 12-year low of March 2009. And so lets keep a close watch on these two levels in crude and the VIX.

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal - VIX Crude Weekly Aug 21 (Chart 1)


BRICS Meet Mr. Fibonacci

While the Shanghai Composite Index has finally become a household item among individual investors and the media following its 17% slump off its record highs, we first warned of this unsustainable price action on July 29th, when the index fell 5% before peaking 4 days later . The chart in the lower left quadrant below shows how the SSEC peaked at the red horizontal line38% retracement of the decline from the all time high of 2007 to the low of 2008. The other 3 charts show how the main equity indices of other 3 BRICs members; Brazils Bovespa, Russias Micex and Indias Sensex, each of which saw its 8-9 month rally stall at key Fibonacci retracement levels. Other than respecting major retracement resistance levels, these high profile emerging market members could be at risk of sustaining further blows later in the quarter owing to the declining weekly stochastics, spelling double bearish divergence. The currency impact of these indices is their allocation of risk cash, which is largely mobilized away from USD and JPY. Thus, rising BRICS is increasingly synonymous with strengthening EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal - BRIC Aug 21 (Chart 2)


Sterling's "Sell Appeal"


While our secular bearish view on the US dollar remains intact, we find more downside in the British pound against USD, and JPY over the medium term (into early Q4). Since pointing out last week
the importance for GBPUSD to hold above its 50-day MA in the face of the headwinds from a dovish Bank of England, the pair has increasingly shown extreme signs of toppishness. The 3-hour chart below highlights how the bears are dominating the flow and any bounce towards $1.66 quickly becomes prey for the bears. Whether we get a fersh round of negative UK data, oil backs off its 200-week moving average or/and the VIX further pushes off its 200-week average, GBP will be due to retest $1.6280, before the targetting $1.57.

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal - Cable 3 Hr Aug 21 (Chart 3)

Comments (Showing latest 10 of 852) View All Comments
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
11 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 13:33
Crude on a ~ 1500 point round trip...crazy.

Ashraf can I get your opinion on oil over the next few weeks?

Thanks
Jack
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 12, 2010 14:47
Mont,

That silly thing - if USD is up, oil & gold are down...and vice versa. 1:2... :)


Asad
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 12, 2010 14:45
See WHAT I mean by a Friday close? They're collapsing everything from commodities to equities to Euro! If it ain't Greece, it's China...


Asad
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
11 years ago
Feb 12, 2010 12:19
@Asad: What's the 2:1 rule? Well, Gold down to 1081-ish as of ~12:00 GMT (got some pips out of that :) ). Is it good for another bounce to 1090 or so?
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 12, 2010 2:35
Pipped,

Check out www.zerohedge.com - they've a similar anti-Goldman stance as yourself...so you'll luuuuuurrrrrvvvvv it there (i.e., if you're not Tyler himself *winks*). Hell, even THEY'LL luuuuurrrrrrvvvvv to have a GoldDUG...


Asad
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 12, 2010 2:30
Look, it's not making sense - it's NOT making any sense!! This is EXACTLY what happened in the credit (corporate) crisis...and the same will happen in the sovereign crisis! It SHOULD...and WILL spread across the Atlantic. If Greece's taking IMF's advice, then means that Japan & US are also involved, isn't it?

Frankly, WHAT solid information do we have on the Greek bail-out? Heck, we DON'T even have any REAL numbers on the damage! Yesterday they hammered the Euro...then they pulled it back...and again they hammered...and today's a weekend...and they're going to hammer the markets!

Why would anyone think the markets are oversold...and WHAT GOOD NEWS has Obama offered that the markets should be up!

To the common mind, justify a simultaneous peak in USD (80), gold (1090) and oil (75). What about the 2-1 rule...??


Asad
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
11 years ago
Feb 11, 2010 21:20
Well the little cousin the FTSE looks to me to be about on its last gasp ... not that I would dare to sell it as that would probably be the cue for it to go up a few hundred points.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 11, 2010 19:48
one hour and fifteen minutes remain in US stock market trading day.

This is the time when GOLDman-backed PPT gooses spoos if market is down triple figures. Will they let market close below up triple digits today? We will find out in about an hour.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 11, 2010 18:13
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 11, 2010 18:03
The talking heads on CNBC-USA are screaming on air that stock markets are oversold and the VIX i heading back to 20 and Gold heading back to record highs from here.

Does everyone work for GOLDman these days?