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Posts by "amit"

10 Posts by Anonymous "amit":
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 25, 2009 19:25
Ashraf, i think its safe to say that gold and silver currently are overbought and are more likely to be sold further if market uncertainties are displaced temporarily with gov't statements. The gold however may break 1000 if eastern European problems manifest to cause equity markets to collapse the recent lows.
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 24, 2009 16:27
Can Debt monetization be the trigger to USD sell, and non-usd Majors Buy? that extend out of the wedges forming over all commodity-related currencies.

Like if bernanke actually initiate buying of treasury securities.
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 11, 2009 18:06
As always, excellent analysis Ashraf.

There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment in the last HOT-chart post "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "

Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.

It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 11, 2009 16:52
As always, excellent analysis Ashraf.

There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment in the last HOT-chart post "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "

Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.

It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 10, 2009 22:35
In Thread: EURUSD
As always, excellent analysis Ashraf.

There is something i wanted you to clarify if possible. Your comment "USD downside risks underlined by record Treasury borrowing, which is boosting yields at expense of USD. "

Know how short term forex traders consider the US-Euro 10yr yield spread, (which correlates inversely with EUR/USD pair), well, if the US yields rise faster than the Euro yields, US-Euro spread would be becoming more positive, therefore, a short EUR/USD action would present itself. Is the main difference in argument invalid due to a supply shock of Treasuries, where the private demand for Treasuries is insufficient or not attractive enough.

It just seems contradictory, so i presume there is something vital i am missing.
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 5, 2009 21:39
Hey ashraf, good calls on AUD/CHF and GBP/USD


Wonder what the USD/JPY jumps today were?
News related, or over sentiment on yen bullish calls?
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Feb 5, 2009 21:08
Hey ashraf, good call


Wonder what the USD/JPY jumps today were?
News related, or over sentiment on yen bullish calls?
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 22, 2009 18:11
-Steve

For EUR/JPY more volatility coming your way so be prepared. 1.10pm est
If EUR/JPY drops below 115 now maybe your OK. Otherwise, its risk management time.
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 22, 2009 11:51
Ashraf i dont want to ask this question to you, however, i am uncertain as to "these" withholdings of currency that institutions have on behalf of BoJ that have been dropping. ( i presume the amount is in their balance sheets posted on their site) I have my assumption ...upside down scythe.

Your call for a USD/JPY in mid 70s somewhere along the way is plausable with my dow at 7000, however, i am uncertain as to how the drop in export demand for japan may lower the appreciation of yen. Japan has been protecting their yen from huge appreciation in time of world growth, however, now that deflation is on the horizon would japan risk itself to manipulating yen by increasing public debt (ie through buying corporate bonds like how FED is buying anything that is high-risk no-return paper thereby subsidizing those markets, or allowing more time to revert large positions because FED know how to scare speculators trying to strong elbow the large positions into liquidating.)
Amit
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 22, 2009 11:35
-Steve

USD/JPY cliff after 10 am on 1/21 was due to options expiration on 10am est time. The subsequent upside to USD/JPY is powerful in timing of bids (maybe gov't enterprised operations to prevent yen appreciation) Since the yen spike occured right as the new options became avail, i am assuming one or more powerhouse is long yen and hedged short options.

I am assuming continued risk aversion and more gov't intervention through indirect operations (this looks like an upside down scythe, easy to spot). So you should be fine short EUR/JPY for sometime. Until obama's stimulus package pumping doesnt start, and maybe those fed buying us gov't IOUs dont start.