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Posts by "bojan"
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41 Posts by Anonymous "bojan":
Personally I am long this pair since recent lows (bellow 1.2000). In my view, schizophrenic markets are going to "it's all right, it's o.k." mode soon, and we going to hear some creazy reason why it's good to buy risk again, and how it is all "just a bump" to a rocky road of recovery.
My question is; What is really new about Greek problem? If you would bring the astronaut that spend year in a space station, you could fool him that he was just a few days by showing him the financial news from last summer.
Markel is worried, and so is Trichet, Papandreou is saying "we'll solve it", they working on a package, greeks are not happy, they are protesting............bla bla bla.
in short;
buy fear, sell greed. vix will go down next week.
what would get me really worried; protests in Germany !!!
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p.s.
I love the comments about oil; oil is down because........ oil is going up because.......
:-)
I understand that EUR/CHF is not your hottest topic lately, but it would be nice to hear your view about this pair medium to long term.
My position is LONG for the medium term. Monthly chart shows divergence, Weekly chart shows bottoming + candle pattern ( 6 weeks lower lows then inverted hammer), Daily shows signs of solid bottoming.
Besides technical, isn't this level waaaaaay to low for SNB. would anybody be surprised if they "jump in" again ?
Last thing, how can Swiss business survive in such environment. Everybody has to have a "bottom line" somewhere. There is a big drop in currency from the last year, when SNB was defending 1.45-1.50 level
Thank You
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http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/5175/Euro
I don't mean any disrespect to the Mr. Osborne, but just to point out how even some of the best in the business, sometime can be sooooooo wrong. Besides the bad call for Eur/Usd, it is useful to read the article and reflect on the sentiment, then and now. There is one thing that is common for both situations - just about everybody is on the one side of the trade. That was just about 100 days ago, and we all moved to the opposite extreme.
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1st, great article, and one of the points of the article is that there is a case for a equity's to move higher. On that note, do you think that CAD/CHF could bounce higher. Pair is now at 23.6% (0.9518 - 0.8498) and October-November lows of 2009
It seems that we are going to see some good news out of Canada, but CHF is still strong, when compared to gold.
it would be nice to feel some cool air in Stockholm, in Arizona we are just coming off high 30-is C.
Thank You
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chinese are buying jgb and pushing jpy higher, than japanese had to intervene to stop jpy from rising, and buying dollars, isn't it exactly what china wants? somebody to buy usd? than it should leave us to buy chf, for the time being,? is the answer for future moves lie in chf/jpy ?
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It is posted on bloomberg less than 1h ago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/yen-rally-gets-no-relief-as-traders-bet-on-bernanke-easing.html
Regarding Q.E. from the FED
Currencies of economies reliant on commodities are also likely to benefit from quantitative easing as the extra supply of money supports inflation
The Barclays study examined currency movements around Fed decisions as a means of assessing the likely reaction to quantitative easing. They found that the yen and franc tended to outperform before and after the decisions
Canadas dollar would be the biggest winner this time because of its proximity to the U.S.
b,
What I find interesting is to what length author went when describing Bernanke, and how important was to him to have unified vote on FOMC meeting. On some meetings, presidents would change their mind after the vote, out of the respect for the "Chairman's opinion".
We'll see soon what is the outcome of this FOMC meeting, and how they voted
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profit taking did not made much sense to me, rally was across the board.
thanks.
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