EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
ندوة سويسكوت مساء الثلاثاء مع أشرف العايدي
لا تفوت ندوتنا الإلكترونية مساء الثلاثاء الساعة 10 مساءً بتوقيت الإمارات
TONNES FORECAST Comments
Supply 2008 2009 Growth % 2010 Growth %
Mine supply 2,356 2,432 3.23% 2,435 0.12%
To be reviewed with actual for the first qtr based on WCG reports
Scrap recycling 1,185 1,408 18.82% 1,500 6.53%
Scrap supply to reduce due to low prices this qtr
Hedging 33 38 15.15% 20 -47.37%
Central bank sales 298 351 17.79% 260 -25.93%
CBSL sales to decline this year
Total supply 3,872 4,229 9.22% 4,215 -0.33%
Supply to decline if scrap supply and CBSL sales decline ,out put from mines
Demand
Jewellery fabrication 1,976 1,798 -9.01% 1,600 -11.01%
With china being the number one consumer followed by India (Share more than 35% of world population with GDP forecasted to grow in year 2010 by 10.1% and 8.5% one would expect jewllery demand to grow during Festival and wedding seasons.
Legal tender coins 201 215 6.97% 201 -6.51%
To remain if investment demand grows and prices remain low
Electronics 422 366 -13.27% 390 6.56%
Industrial demand likely to remain stable this year with expected global economic recovery
Other end uses Industrial demand) 313 284 -9.27% 250 -11.97%
Do Do
Etfs 320 576 80.00% 700 21.53%
Could increase if inflationary expectations grow ,along with expansionary fiscal policies across the globe and china launching gold based products with WCG
Central bank purchases 191 380 98.95% 250 -34.21%
CBSL would remain net purchases of gold this year
De-hedging 374 229 -38.77% 120 -47.60%
To decline
Total demand 3,797 3,848 1.34% 3,511 -8.76%
Demand could increase if supply decreases and jewllery demand grows
Residual (surplus/deficit) 75 381 408.00% 704 84.78%
Source -Fortis Virtual metals group while comments made is based on historical analysis of market and past trends.
Actual data to received from World gold council for this quarter
will provide more in sight and direction to gold prices in the ensuing quarters
Current positive correlation ship of gold with equities market world wide and negative correlation ship with EURO/ US dollar will impact world prices as well.
Cost of mining gold per ounce at present is USD 800 per ounce while India puchassed 200 tons of gold at USD 1,040 and ounce from IMF in Dec 2009.
Appreaciate your views on above Ashraf and the rest thanks
Hi Ashraf
Has gold moved away from the inverse relationship with USD/Euro and now having a corelationship with OIL.
I think there is a lack of physical supply in the market which is pushing prices up
If scrap supplies come in we could c a reversal or correction in June
Rgds
I will agree with letisha on gold move up since tommorrowes NFP should be below consensus which is bearish for the dollar no matter what US is in recession even though certain monthly data may indicate growth.
Also unemploument benifits is one reason that keeps the consumption going in US and if its stopped due to republican preasure it will have a cascading effect to the US economy.
Hard to c FED increasing their disocunted window RATE and drain liquidty .Increase in oil prices too will have a negative impact to global economy .
Gold should be supported with demand due to wedding seasons and oversold enviroment on daily and weekly charts.
Read in bloomberg the republicans are trying to block the jobless benifits claim to around 220,000 citizens wont that have an impact on American economy and trigger further unempoyment since it can affect other business, retail sales , etc.
Dinesh
Asad ur correct population is 6.8 billion india and china together have 2.5 billion while western countries china and IMF,ETF hold around 20% of the gold reserves which is interesting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
World population set to grow to 10 bio by 2050
Lets c the quarterly demand and supply stats from world gold council scrap supply set to decline
Dinesh
Ashraf
There is a school of thought that due to large eartquakes in the world ie the one in indonasia in Dec 2004, chile this year can make mining gold very difficult while they expect more oil to be found
Hi Ashraf
what we meant was due to earth quakes and change in earths crust and technotics plates the gold deposits will fall deeper into the earth (ground) and cost of mining or finding new gold will be hard over the years to come while records indicate around 165,000 tons of gold have been mined we have 195 countries and a population of over 10 billion while china and india (combine population of 2.5 billion ) are top two consumers in the world hence their will be demand in the next 5 years while supply side constraints can weigh on overall prices of gold even though we may expect corrections towards 900 usd an ounce
Hi Ashraf
How would gold react to news of increase imports to india this quater compared to last year and reduction in scrap supply compared to last quarter.
Wont demand supply support prices in addition to technicals.
When EURO/USD WAS 1.35 in oct 2008 gold was way below 800 an ounce while now cost of an ounce ie mining cost is above 800 dollars an ounce.
There is a school of thought that due to large eartquakes in the world ie the one in indonasia in Dec 2004, chile this year can make mining gold very difficult while they expect more oil to be found.
Rgds
Dinesh