Posts by "drexl"

Ashraf -

Could you please elaborate on your intent with this Hot Chart?

I am also confused about it's message.

Personally, I took the references to the GBPAUD 2.097 and 2.11 targets PLUS the "red square" on the chart highlighting the zone between 2.2492 and 2.5000 as a clear indication of upside potential during the next 2 - 3 months or so. Not to mentioin the Stochastic crossovers in the "oversold" zone . . .

But now that I am seeing your reply to Sam on April 2 (haven't read these posts before now) refering to SHORTING GBPAUD (huh?) I am COMPLETELY confused by this call.

Please elaborate.

Thank You.

Hi Again Ashraf -

Don't konw if this particular thread has been discontinued or not - If yes, I'll send my question via alternative means.

Otherwise, thank you for the information regarding the 60/30/10 Tri-Currency strategy for allocating my cash assets (NOK,EUR, and USD respectively) - it was greatly appreciated and is in the process of being implemented even as we speak.

Otherwise, I choose to ask my question here as it continues on the USDNOK theme - and addresses issues that you may or may not be aware of, but I believe that you will find it interesting:

Regarding North Sea Oil and Gas:

As the Danish government also has drilling rights in the North Sea (operated by Mrsk) along with the UK and Norway, among others - we here in Denmark have above average insight in various technical matters pertaining to the issue.

Ingenren ("Engineer" in engilsh - the leading industrial periodicle) has published a series of interesting articles regarding Peak Oil in the North Sea, this one among others: http://ing.dk/artikel/89324

Although I am familiar with your extraordinary portfolio of languages that you command - I am going to ASSUME ;) that it does not include any of the scandinavian languages and will take the liberty of tranlating a brief synopsis:

The Headline for the article is "In 10 Years, we (Danmark implied) will have to import oil again"

In short, the article is referring to the Danish Ministry of Energy's latest findings and evaluation regarding our North Sea Oil reserves, which is currently dwindling at a rate that results in only approximately 9 years worth of oil left (based on 2008's rate of consumption...)

The concensus is that by 2018 - Denmark will once again have oil tankers in its harbors IMPORTING oil for the first time since 1963, and that natural gas imports will commence already by 2016.

If we assume (again? many assumptions...) that the Norwegian reserves are proportionately the same, would a scenario like that mean that NOK's long-term strength ends at that point?

Instinctively, I would personally think "YES - Most Definitely!!!" but I would like to hear your eventual confirmation.

Question 2 - If we limit our "Long Term" analysis to the rest of 2009 and 2010, for example, do you see USDNOK falling back to October 2008 levels? Do you eventually see even FURTHER decline? Please elaborate on your definition of the possiblities for the next couple of years.

In the spirit of open source and sharing information, I am delighted to MAYBE have the possiblity of reciprocating by sharing a little bit of information with you as well, both now and in the future.

Looking forward to any and all replies, and Thank You again.

Regards,

Keith Marable

Hello Ashraf - Thank you for the invaluable insight, and I look forward to studying the numerous thoughts and ideas that you present within your website.

The latest information regarding EURUSD proved to be quite timely indeed!

For the medium to longer term, however, putting too much stock in EUR worries me immensely - and as such, I am particularly interested in your take on NOK, especially as I am based in Scandinavia.

If I was interested in switching my USD based assets to NOK, would NOW be a good time - or should one wait until a little later in the year?

Any reply would be much appreciated.

Best Regards, and Keep Up the Good Work.