EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
ندوة سويسكوت مساء اليوم مع أشرف العايدي
هل سنرى إتفاقية تخفيض الدولار؟
هل ستفرض الولايات المتحدة مجموعة 5 اعلى تخفيض الدولار الأميركي مثل ما حصل في اتفاقيات البلازا في سنة 1987 و ممكن يآتي تخفيض الدولار آكثر قبولا من التعريفات الجمركي. انقر على الرابط لتحجز مقعدك
The markets are frothing
Stock that would go up 2 dollar on earning is going up 5
there is too much liquidity, no taper, market will continue up
looks like S&P will spike up towards year end - 2000?
Its all QE
The reflexivity trade - reversion to its trend for the dollar to pull up a bit towards 1.3550 may come up, but I would only go long the euro for now
fundamentals are against the dollar
check the chart of UVXY - vix related etn
key to this trade
only go short
when the fear is really high
and very close to the time of decision
key is to know who controls the decision
its boehner, who will decide for a vote
breakaway republicans and dems will pass the bill
so watch when boehner distances from team partiers
time to short the vix
in this case,
debt limit date oct 17 is first key
and the next week is critical
vix would peak before this
s&p will have a sharp drop along with this vix peak
this will NOT blow up,
because the resolution of the issue is in the hands of Obama and Boehner
my thesis
its about 50% return in 1-2 week
you just need to be closer to the trainwreck time
ultimately, republicans will back off
you need to be closer to the deadline
and remember not to miss- AND have rnough funds to hold on if there is a run up in the vix
VIX can easily kill the account by the way - with a 911 or '87 type drop
not for the faint of the heart
short the vix
debt celing WILL be lifted by early to end next week
1630 is level to watch on S&P,
I will short VIX around this level
VIX will fall atleast 50% right after first compromise comes
j
Whats your stop Sir?
info moving across the globe and back will take full day
enough time to keep the euro running up
there is no catalyst on the horizon for tomorrow
2nd law of motion, once running keeps running, until hit otherway
i think early next week might be good time to look for a short entry
i wd nt short it here
would be interesting to hear what AL would say for today
the only logic i can think of is the fed getting scared for mortgage rate jump or debt ceiling issues
whatever the logic afterwards,
fact is tapering out risk in
AND tons of folks were on the wrong side of the trade
automatic euro rise for covering
rule 1: first let the event happen
THEN, take a position
rather than investing based on probability of event,
better trade after the event has happened
since, information takes time to travel in the market
today's event is a euro long, risk long, gold long, s&p long
first, stop trading
figure out what s wrong
either the analysis is wrong or the market is wrong
but more often, execution is the problem
make changes, try an alternate strategy
work small, build confidence
in random market movements, human emotion always leads to losses
if you r a small trader, there is no need to jump in everyday, and come out a loser. The emotions will get you to be small in profit taking and big on losses.
in directional movements, you can make money, specially when a major macro trend changes, typically via crisis or central banks
examples:
- EU crisis troughs last three summers
- Japan election win last year
- US monetary stimulus 1,2,3
these have clearly resulted in major moves
AL is good in these things.
better do no trades than bad trades.
gambling is good for cansinos - atleast there is some entertainment around.
Loosing 50% of your 200k is 100k.
To make that back from 100k, you need to get 100% return.
Impossible for an emotionally driver trader.
good luck