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Posts by "koka"
7 Posts Total by "koka":
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Posts by Anonymous "koka":
Really great idea Ashraf.
Although I am Italy fan since I started watching football, this cup will go to Spain I think. Their team is too good :)
I have not traded for couple of months and my hands are itching to short the eur, but I think it is too early. If you look at the eur/usd downtrend that has started in the beginning of December, it had two rallies, first one - 380pips - 14 days and the second one 360 - 17 days pips. Now we are in a third one which may be longer and higher. And after that aid to greece should need some news to trigger a fresh down move.
Another thing is that the short positions should cool a little to get ready for a new move.
And the last one is a huge divergence of MACD and price, which should play itself out, as its effect has just started.
So I would say the good opportunity to short eur/usd is 1.3620-30, some 360 pips higher than recent low, 1.3266. And good time should be somewhere in the middle of April.
What do you think?
It would be interesting also to see a gold/EURUSD chart. As EUR can't go past 1.50, while gold seems to hold on to its gains well. I have never seen gold/EURUSD, but I would even say that to watch gold/EURUSD would be more interesting than oil/EURUSD.
Koka
What do you think of playing long EUR/GBP for the GBP weakness. It has just made a morning star on daily and is about to break a falling resistance line which connects 30.12.08, 18.03.2009 and recent, end of August, highs.
But the best thing is that it will play in every situation, if there will be risk aversion GBP will fall more, for sure. But even if there is positive risk, there is a decent chance that GBP gains will be less than those of EUR.
Do you think the cyclical peaks will continue this month also?? If that is a case, than we should see at least a couple of days of falling yen, which happans when things are positive.
I have a feeling that we will see a final strech for equities/risk currencies. And only after that the falling will start. The fears are mounting. I am waiting for the final drop in third or fourth week of september.
What do you think will be the final blow for GBP to fall?
I am bearish on GPB, but I do not think that we will see a strong down, until equities in US head down. And equities seem to be strong on strong oil, at least it was a story yesterday. So, should we wait for the oil?
Another thing is the September coming, which has been the bad month for US equities.
And GDP next Friday.
Until that I think the game is short the cable on bad news, wait for the rebound, short again