To support my technical argument with fundamentals is that the $2 trillions of eastern European debt added to EU domestic liabilities and exposure to U.S. subprime collatorised debt, brings the Euro zones total toxic debt liabilities to more than $23 trillion, this is set against the U.S. liabilities estimated at $11 trillion, therefore Europe is in a far more dangerous position in terms of the fallout from the credit crisis than the United States. The primary reason for such greater exposure is that the European banks were far trickier than the U.S. banks in terms of off balance sheet leverage i.e. many European banks have leveraged up to as much as X60 capital, against typical wall street bank leverage of X30 capital. This therefore in the immediate future implies greater contraction of the European economies than the U.S. economy as well as suggesting higher inflation and therefore supports the view of a stronger US Dollar against the Euro.
Hi Ashraf, I did an Elliot Wave analysis on the EUR/USD and my conclusions were EURO has a lot of downward room to cover before any recovery. If you look at the monthly chart from the beginning of 2001-2008 we have a 5 wave up, the downward correction that has followed has so far done an A-B---- C is currently in progress. Wave C normally ends relatively below where wave 4 ends for which this case is 1.1400 area. Another reason to believe this area is key is because the A-B done, B retraced up to 0.618 of wave A, so we should expect an AB=CD pattern. But what could change this picture, considering a double bottom is looming in the EUR/USD, a bounce up and a retest of 1.45 area and a correction down to the current levels thus creating a triple bottom could significantly end the bear of EUR. Whats your take?
Hi Ashraf My analysis was based on a daily wave count,weekly also gives a nice picture but i like daily for a few details. I believe it has finished correcting with 77 level as support and is in the early stages of the next 5 wave up. Of course with the weekly count the bigger picture is that its doing an A-B-C with B having retraced upto 61.8% of A which is a very key level and its either complete or doing its final touches. Regards
Hi Ashraf, I have been reading your articles and they are very helpful, they help me think outside the box. I have been studying Elliot wave which I'm sure your well aware of, and possibly what its saying about to the USD index and correct me if I am wrong is that the resent drop in the dollar is very short term. Its half way a zigzag pattern (5-3-5) and once its through with the A-B-C correction down up to somewhere around 76, we are going to see the final 5 wave up which should mature at the end of Q1 2009. Then from there we see the beginning of US dollar weaknesses like never before. Regards Muira
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I did an Elliot Wave analysis on the EUR/USD and my conclusions were EURO has a lot of downward room to cover before any recovery. If you look at the monthly chart from the beginning of 2001-2008 we have a 5 wave up, the downward correction that has followed has so far done an A-B----
C is currently in progress.
Wave C normally ends relatively below where wave 4 ends for which this case is 1.1400 area. Another reason to believe this area is key is because the A-B done, B retraced up to 0.618 of wave A, so we should expect an AB=CD pattern.
But what could change this picture, considering a double bottom is looming in the EUR/USD, a bounce up and a retest of 1.45 area and a correction down to the current levels thus creating a triple bottom could significantly end the bear of EUR.
Whats your take?
My analysis was based on a daily wave count,weekly also gives a nice picture but i like daily for a few details. I believe it has finished correcting with 77 level as support and is in the early stages of the next 5 wave up. Of course with the weekly count the bigger picture is that its doing an A-B-C with B having retraced upto 61.8% of A which is a very key level and its either complete or doing its final touches.
Regards
I have been reading your articles and they are very helpful, they help me think outside the box. I have been studying Elliot wave which I'm sure your well aware of, and possibly what its saying about to the USD index and correct me if I am wrong is that the resent drop in the dollar is very short term. Its half way a zigzag pattern (5-3-5) and once its through with the A-B-C correction down up to somewhere around 76, we are going to see the final 5 wave up which should mature at the end of Q1 2009. Then from there we see the beginning of US dollar weaknesses like never before.
Regards
Muira