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Posts by "nextsignals"

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nextSignals
(United States)
nextSignals
United States
Posts: 0
4 years ago
Feb 20, 2016 10:55
Vote: US recession

My earlier doubts about the US economic outlook have softened some, but not much. I still see slowing in the US equity sector and while 10-year treasury yields continue to fall, I expect the long bond to outperform. For 2016, modest dollar appreciation appears likely against the Euro and commodity currencies. I’m long precious metals, the long bond, and utilities. Short US financials.
nextSignals
United States
Posts: 0
4 years ago
Jan 17, 2016 16:28
Ashraf, great points. The rapid deterioration in the world economy you describe poses a serious challenge to portfolio managers. In the US, there is ongoing deflation, a growth slowdown in manufacturing, and corporate profit recession. A rebound in equities is dubious and the risk of another downward move is substantial.

Until ongoing worries about the Yuan subside, macro data improves, and credit spreads narrow, I would imagine that asset allocation models should favor cash, fixed income, and currencies.

In addition to short-term trading of FX spot and crosses, how would you feel about allocating capital to the USD and Yen via the ETFs UUP and FXY?
nextSignals
United States
Posts: 0
4 years ago
Jan 6, 2016 22:30
Judging from shares bought at today's close, there's still the possibility of a "surprise" ...when institutional money flows better align with macroeconomics. Tonight's data posted at www.nextSignals.com/ (Most of the flows into safe havens and defensives.)
nextSignals
United States
Posts: 0
4 years ago
Jan 6, 2016 20:36
In reply to oldgreywhistletest's post
Hi Old Grey,

When I posted my comment, I was referring to the business cycle (as opposed to current stock market fluctuations). The econometric data is certainly mixed, but by and large the US appears to have reached a cyclical peak and is in a contraction.

Simply stated, I see a US recession, based upon contractions in industrial production and trade, reductions in full-time employment, and reductions in real personal income.
nextSignals
United States
Posts: 0
4 years ago
Jan 4, 2016 1:58
The US is already in a recession.