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Posts by "saka"

44 Posts Total by "saka":
36 Posts by member
Saka
(China)
8 Posts by Anonymous "saka":
Saka
China
Posts: 29
7 years ago
Jun 20, 2013 4:15
great analysis. I will hold the short position of AUD/USD for a long time
Saka
China
Posts: 29
7 years ago
Feb 8, 2013 15:00
In reply to Qingyu's post
it means there will be a big bullish trend of USD. As what Andy Xie said, because US will recovery than other countries.
Saka
China
Posts: 29
7 years ago
Feb 8, 2013 14:54
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
Keynes? LoL
Saka
China
Posts: 29
7 years ago
Feb 8, 2013 6:14
In reply to DaveO's post
thanks,DaveO
But what's more important is your tactics. We can't control market but can make plans for each scenario :-)
Saka
China
Posts: 29
7 years ago
Feb 8, 2013 1:31
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
Sorry, Laidi, I'm not your Premium client but the fan of your book.

When fundamental factor conflicts with technique, I ususally choose to trust the latter one, because I believe market has absorbed the news already.

Definitely I am lucky, aussie has cracked 1.37 level. But I more like EUR/AUD's chart, from weekly chart, it breaks out neck line of sHs pattern and its weekly MACD has crossed from 0 level from April 09. Chart shows that the bullish trend has come back of this pair. I anticipate it will go to 1.38 level.

From long time view. I have a foreboding just like what Andy Xie has written in marketwatch that the big bullish trend of Greenback is going to come back soon. I think that would mean the end of bullish trend of commodity currencies.

Sincerely
Saka
China
Posts: 29
7 years ago
Feb 2, 2013 2:01
Dear Laidi.
From the monthly chart of AUD/USD and EUR/AUD, I feel that the top of Aussie is coming. Especially the latter one, a sHs has formed already. So I have opened a short position of AUD/USD at 1.052 and a long position of EUR/AUD at 1.281. I hope this would be another a big trend just like USD/JPY. Do you have some instructional tips?
:-)
Saka
China
Posts: 29
7 years ago
Dec 17, 2012 3:31
dear, Laidi

I have longed UJ from 79.5 and still hold this position. I think this trend will be stalled at 85.5 level in short term. . But from monthly chart, I think a sHs bottom pattern has formed, and it will get to 95 level in sereval years. From fundermental view, I think this is the top of Yen, and a new era has emerged.
Saka
China
Posted Anonymously
8 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 10:13
BTW, I want to ask Ashraf a question

How do you confirm a consolidation is over? We know that the major currenies, especially the EU is consolidated into a narrow band. Just as what you have shown us, you have a BEARISH bias of EU, but how could a trader identify this is a real breakout if the anticipation occurs? When EU cracks 1.2950 level? Do you have another assistant way to confirm it?

I just thought EU would have formed the sHs pattern in 16th April, and I aslo used the soaring yeild of Spain as a confirm, but it failed, and a famous column author wrote an aritilce in Marketwatch that day. I definitely believe there would be a big trend after a long consolidation, but still need some other ways to filtrate the false breakout ones.Thanks.
Saka
China
Posts: 29
8 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 9:24
thanks for tips, cat0nip

I think at least, in a view of investment, equit is a good one to exceed inflation. But I'm only a speculator, who is interest in financial market when the yield of spain soared, resulted in the dive of EU, or when the yield of 2 year US treasury rising, it could anticipate the same in UJ. So this is why analysing bond market is alluring me.
Saka
China
Posts: 29
8 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 4:31
hi, DaveO

You know, the bond market in China is not advanced. In developed counties, bond market emerged earlier than equity market, but in China, most people are only familiar with equity but know little about bond. I sure read Laidi's book but still don't totally understand the their relationship. This is why I want to learn it.