Posts by "stationdealer"

1255 GMT [Dow Jones]Treasury is set to announce sizes for next week's new government debt sales at 11 a.m. EDT. Many market participants are expecting another round of cuts in the sizes. Economists at Wrightson ICAP say both the two-year note and the five-year note sales will see their sizes down by $2 bln, to $42bln and $40bln respectively, while the size for the seven-year note supply will be cut by $1bln to $31bln. The total size will be $113bln, down from $118bln last month. The Treasury already cut the three-year and 10-year auction sizes earlier this month as it expects improvement in tax receipts amid a recovering economy.

(min.zeng@dowjones.com)


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@ASHRAF (how do you see the effects of these cut on commodity pair? plz comments!)

Mondo, I wasn't talking about China. They have already performed very through out of last year '09 and shown they can tackle inflation better than anyone. I totally standby china monetary reforms and in general trade policies.
Beijing has been pretty quiet on the declining euro, and with good reason.
Theres been some chatter in markets that central banks, including the big names in Asia, are starting to fret about the euros decline, and even offloading some holdings.
We may never know for sure. But theres certainly no great impetus for the Peoples Bank of Chinaour champion of reserve diversification in Asiato rush euros onto the market.
Not that long ago China was warning the U.S. about a deterioration in the U.S. dollar, reminding the world it had a vested interest in the dollars value via its massive holdings of U.S. government debt.
The greenbacks recovery courtesy of the euros fall has eased those concerns. China is sitting prettier on its U.S. assets.
And while theres speculation the PBOC was a buyer of euros at the peak, it doesnt naturally follow that it would be selling into the declines.
European finance ministers are sounding concerned about the euro, but the European Central Bank has been much less vocal. The PBOC would probably fall into the sanguine camp alongside the ECB.
Finance ministers are much more minute-to-minute. They have exporters on their backs and manufacturers at the front door to worry about.
Central banks tend to be less concerned about daily currency wobbles, especially when it comes to their reserve accumulation. They will go into the markets to smooth things out, but for reserve strategy they look past the short term.
China is sticking with its plan to shift some new reserves into assets aside from the dollar, and the euro would make up a fair portion of that investment basket. And as long as the PBOC remains confident the euro is not going to collapse, and given its stated aim of limiting its reliance on the dollar, it may even be tempted to pick up euros on a cheaper basis.
Chinas central view is probably that the U.S. dollar is due for a long-term structural decline. Over time, fewer trades will be done in the greenback. Its in Chinas interest to keep euros on its books, and add to them as and when it can.

Monty when good ol' Jim said 121, 120 figure Euro closed on 12327 on 16th may, and over the weekend when he made those comments euro was basically expected to open lower. so what i would take from his words is that he see's euro bottoming out at these levels. And Kiwi's and Aussie's will raise rates again into the second quarter, a good indicator for that will be a declining trade balance figures.

Cat Euro i see 127 end of this week while (dont forget options & futures expiry up soon. So the sellers sentiment would like an other go again at it in the new contracts) Medium term i see it back 133 to 135 probably around early as of august. long term back above 144. Meanwhile i still expect some side ways waves to continue.
Pound i know end of this year will be back above 160, long term higher rate argument is suggestive
as we have Olympics in 2012 so it makes sense to raise sterling value higher. Medium term i see it 15050 to 15350. short term we do not need to fear GBP as volatile pound will continue to give ample opportunities along with the side lining aussie and euro.
Aussie on the other hand is contrary to dollar, while dollar index shows signs of being range bound traded value btw 83 - 87 i would favour shorts on much of aussie rallies with short term bullish rallies may likely appear. For now I do see aussie headed towards 9030/40 pior to 4th June's NFP figures.
Aussie yen would remain preferred trade in-case RBA decides to continue raising rates for 2010.

Asad you know oil get expensive for exploration if it dips below $70 so dont expect it would likely see a $63 or 68 this quarter, being summer demand just starting to rise. Incase that unlikely things happens petrol is going to get expensive than its ever been, thus creating a global oil inflation fears again.

I agree xaron and it will be happening soon you can only dump a certain amount of euro. Euro already gaining vs the Asiatic currencies. Where its been seen being bought rapidly during the morning session.
While im hedged euro so far iv'e been long gold and now going long on aussie and shorting swissie. and of gold decide to come down long copper. All in all there's more thoughtful trades and opportunity out there, also staying long with GBP till 15350.

@ month you naughty i choice to quote what i want to quote, mentioned what was worth while to mention. it was not to drive any assessment it was just some boring information that cud have been useful to someone. Thanks for the enlightenment .

"May 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve will restart its emergency currency-swap tool by providing as many dollars as needed to European central banks to keep the continents sovereign-debt crisis from spreading." Thus surplus dollar floats back into the market, that will cheapen dollar further!

There are many different investment vehicles one can use to invest in gold. The key aspects that we as investors and traders look for are the vehicles relationship and correlation with gold prices, and how much that correlation is or isnt leveraged to the gold price. More leverage is not always the objective of an investor, one may be looking for less sensitivity to the gold price, or simply to match golds performance. The value of common stocks relative to Gold is about to accelerate in the opposite direction the Larry Kudlow and Jimmy Jack Cramer crowd are expecting. The concept of relative wealth is an important one for Gold bulls to comprehend and embrace, as it allows them to calculate gains in something besides unstable paper debt-backed fiat currency, which is a worthless measure of value. In other words, it negates the need to worry about the inflation-deflation debate.

The best example of this mental calculation of value is the Dow to Gold ratio. The average American, if they still have a job and any savings left, puts their excess money in stocks, real estate and/or government bonds. This is the absolute wrong thing to do, but the average American paperbug has been indoctrinated beyond what seems possible. Like members of the Jim Jones cult, most Americans are paperbugs and all-too-ready to drink the apparatchik Flavor Aid being served in public schools, on the nightly news and by mainstream financial publications that employ ignorant commentators who preach "stocks for the long haul and everything will always be OK or better than OK".

The bottom line is a simple but powerful concept: Gold will continue to increase in value relative to general stocks, real estate and government bonds, as it has over the past decade. This isn't rocket science, it is simply the swinging pendulum of financial history. Trust me when I tell you that you don't want to "buy and hold" Gold forever as an investor with a finite lifespan (unless you're certain to staty alive in the next 10 years...).


For now Euro still BUYs