Posts by "themosmitsos"

Ashraf, friend, methinks you worry too much about people who aren't even willing to scroll through an internet page. Good Day. ;)

If you love soccer I have some (lengthy-ish) thoughts that might interest you. First let me say that Ive been a fan of ARG for ᡌyrs and I always root for them after GRE,soooo.. :((( yup.
...Second, I certainly have total antipathy for a GER side since third, from the first moment I saw them Germany clearly seemed to be one of most the most dangerous teams Ive seen in a while, and a primary threat to my Argentina. Fourth, keep in mind I acknowledge theyre doing all this without one of the best players in the world, Ballack (one of my favorites).
ARG, you cant give up a cheap goal at this level, especially so early (and get discombobulated), because if the opponent earns a second goal (as Germany did), the game is over. Argentina already had a slightly weak defense and goalie, so when they had to push to score, down 2-0, they just fell apart.
..However, what I think is important and notable here, is tactics and strategy, specifically the 4-4-1-1. This will now be the second team, to my knowledge, after ITA in the 90s-2000s to employ this ultra-defensive formation so successfully and (possibly-likely) win the WorldCup. Other teams have tried this formation last 10-15yrs, ENG, GRE also with some success but not always, and that is precisely the point, that teams are moving to it.
.Were seeing here an evolution of soccer, before our eyes, as we saw the shift in the 80s from the 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 to the 4-4-2. The Germans are now showing and proving the #Italian model works, how it can be replicated, and how it can be improved. Its a confirmation.
..The problem teams have had at the international level, the WorldCup the last 20yrs, is finding a formation/strategy/tactical setup that allows you to be equally effective against both super defensive 4-4-2s like ITA, FRA, ENG, and the super offensive SouthAmerican 3-5-2s of BRA and ARG, in other words to be able to field an even more defensive formation than a 4-4-2 (the Germans often had 9 players plus goalie right around their own box 15mins into first half in every game) while not only maintaining a lethal counter-attack capacity, but an outright offensive capability (often managing 6-7 players into opponents box on counter attacks by pushing the edges).
..This 4-4-1-1 the Germans are playing is exactly like the Italian version..it changes into a 4-5-1, a 4-4-2, a 4-3-3, and a 3-4-3. It is strongest right down the middle, where teams attacks have been coming from the last 20yrs, and most lethal on the edges, where most teams are weakest these days.
..To be sure, this German side is stacked with players all over the place. But the key is, skill at the edges of both the back and center lines, and the physical fitness and willingness and ability of those players to move up (push forward) a line (Total Football) and play that lines position. The Italians did it with great success, and now the Germans too with Podolski, Schweinsteiger, and Mller, effectively forwards, playing midfielder positions and pushing forward from that role.
...The other key of course is an elite *finisher,* not striker, theres a difference, who commands 2 defenders in his cherry-picking role by sliding slightly left-forward or right-forward, rather than straight forward, and thus pushing/drawing the defensive line off balance with every counter-attack/push he makes as the only forward player, opening wide-open lanes on the other side for the second forward and that sides midfielder pushing ahead, his position in turn being filled by that sides rear back in classic Dutch TotalFootball style. Just imagine if they were fielding yet one more rock on the defensive midfield in Ballack. Scary.
..Thats the best I can do. I think this is a big deal. I think a lot of teams will be trying to copy this style very soon and there could be a similar wholesale shift into this formation as there was into the 4-4-2 in the 90s when noone could score on ITA and manage to stop their counter-attacks. Teams will use their best athletes on the wings of their back/mid lines to compensate for their lack of talent, and try to emulate this style, imo.
...Rooting for URU now. ☺

!!! GREECE!!! [shut up :)]

ARGENTINA is who I think is most dangerous and my favorite to win it,and NOT just because they have Mesi.
Brazil is weak this time imo,first time I can remember a Brazilian team I felt was this weak in 20yrs, IMO, and primed for uncharacteristically early exit.
England vastly over-rated.
Italy is the sleeping horse,experience matters in deeper rounds the most.
Holland has good chance,but only if they get a draw that suits them.

Holland and Germany are teams that could knock out Brazil or another power,but Germany can't win it.I see alot of scenarios where teams are pretty much either equal or just not good enough,and will beat one equal opponent but get knocked out by similar or less team.

For me,Argentina and Italy (experience) seperate,and then Holland.I think Holland,Spain,Germany,Brazil,Portugal,England are all basically on the same level and will just knock each other out because none seperates.I expect an African team to bite someone in the round of 16.

I've got Argentina,Italy,Holland,and whoever gets lucky and left over,in the final 4.Argentina is the only team I can say I feel sure to get through to final.I think they win it.

!!! GREECE!!! [shut up :)] Korea?!?!?!? WHAT THE FUCK?!?!?!?!

VOTE:Other (explain)

Ridiculous, the EU will not break up nor will Greece or anyone else be ejected. Why isn't that even a vote option Ashraf? What will happen is a freeze on expansion and new rules for those who aren't in yet. EU would not have ponied up $150bill to then eject Greece and see that debt turn into #30bill through FX devaluation, nor then extended a trillion dollar EU-wide package.

The United States and Great Britain cannot fix their much more significant problems by falsely claiming the European situation is worse. Sure, Europe's not in perfect or great shape but the USA's problems easily dwarf them both in scope and difficulty, in the public and private sector, in real estate and in banking, and while EU problems are structural and pre-existing, the USA's commitments are only NOW being undertaken, and its situation is ALREADY worse.

Finally, the real "other shoe" to drop in Europe is not Greece, Spain, or Italy, it is the UK, whom EVERYBODY seems keen to avoid talking about.

This is just the US's and UK's players desperate attempt to ensure a lack of viable alternatives when the inevitable run on the US TSY market begins.
But noone wins in a game of your wife's uglier than mine.

VOTE:No

Basically, the US can never raise rates in the current environment because of the impact on US debt service (increase) and because it would cause precisely the recession US needs, but so desperately tries to avoid for political reasons. The debt-to-GDP figures people are throwing around of 60 and 80% are just ludicrious, as debt-to-GDP already exceeds 120% WITHOUT including contingent liabilities, which spike it to %, with an annual deficit of 12.5%!

What's needed is not a rate hike; it's a HARD CORE austerity budget with cuts of =/> 30%, and the resultant deflation and deep recession, to allow the forces of corrective destruction to take place. Politicians are not willing to do this.