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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
I think UK banks are significantly exposed to Irish banks so can see a possible problem there for uk.
on the Eur/Usd 1hr chart could you also class the price movement in a rising wedge. With Divergance inverted h&S and rising wedge, from a tech view point its looking bullish. Whay do you reckon
Am long from 1.3933 and target of approx 1.41 region
Nice find - thanks
are held by Eurozone banks , and blow up the balance sheet of ECB. But the point is the involvement of Ezone banks. This is not the case in US nor in UK.
Thus ECB must constantly feed liquidity to banks to brush up their balance sheet and hide the fact these are undercapitalized.
The next is that EUr is soccer ball for wannabe politicians. One kicks it there another kicks it there and they say hey we have no idea how to play soccer but ECB is the goalkeeper.
Nothing of that is in accordance with the foundation treaty of the common currency.
Now the Japan crisis. Some overpaid officials are woken up with some effort and they say well
Japan no danger for super duper german industry. But it is. BMW VW Mercedes all of them rely on sophisticated processor and other chips made in Japan. Hardly any hi tech product that has no Japan made products somewhere.
Im seeing a bullish divergence on the Eur/Usd 1hr chart. GL
So the Euro is knocking its head once again against the 1.4 ceiling. But will it finally break through?
Portugal downgraded by Moody's, should it matter given the downgrades to Spain last week were largely shaken off by the rising Euro? And it can hardly be a surprise, but how much of Portugal's problems have already been priced in?
I'm not sure on the above, advice welcome, but I do think the markets may have got ahead of themselves in believing Trichet's hawkish talk. The old Machiavel's inflation-bashing bravado was in my opinion a pragmatic attempt to boost the Euro upwards (it has worked), in the anticipation of Euro periphery problems. Add in Japan's recent woes, and a sell off in commodities, and I think the stage is set for an about turn. I'm also recalling Trichet's claim that there could be no successive raising of rates because it would effectively blow up the banking system: so the question has to be, why raise them at all?
Place yer bets...