Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 17:23
ashraf&forum..can some1 explain to me what will happen to $$ and risk appitite if the boj intervenes..having a hard time understanding all that japanese situations..thanks for your help:) gl:)
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 16:37
Why Yen strength?

Heres an interview i did in August explaining stubborn Yen Strength (still applicable) http://bit.ly/bYMesi

For those still asking why Yen rises during global fears, go to CHAPTER 5 in my book about CARRY TRADES, RISK AVERSION and the use of the yen as a funding currency.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/book/


Ashraf
sultan5568
jubail industrial, Saudi Arabia
Posts: 10
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 16:04
Flast :: I am agree with you ... same Question to Mr. Ashraf . Iam in trouble buy GBP/JPN 129.5
Flast
Hamburg, Germany
Posts: 8
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 15:53
Salam alikom mr Ashraf

Why always when crisis happens in japan the value of the Japanese Yen increase ? why the investors get confident to buy Yen while they know that these crisis could destroy the hall Japanese economic ?

thanks allot
subway90
Posts: 1078
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 9:07
yes... gunjack...

shorted again at 79.65 and got out at 79....
but looks to be headed back to 77 level... as long as it doesn't settle above 79.50 level....

gl/gt
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 8:59
for me my 78.50 target i mentioned last night got hit and covered my long...was a great night of knife catching lol!!
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 8:58
@subway90 dude you should have kept that short U/J @ 79.5...was a v good call considering where U/J is now. Agree with your view only worth going long in this pair if we get a clear break of 79.50.
Letisha
St. Catherine, Jamaica
Posts: 156
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 2:25
@Nor...What about 129.74...too conservative?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 2:17
As USDJPY hit a new record low of 77.03 in early Thursday Asian trade, much talk arises about the repatriation trade le by Japanese investors. As I often indicated during last autumns lows, USDJPY has a highly inverse correlation with bond yields, thereby, tends to drive down USDJPY (rising yen) during falling yields (resulting from fresh QE, weak US/global economic figures and concerns with disinflation). And of course, bond yields also fall as bond prices rally on days like these (tumbling equities casting doubt on the global recovery).

Aware of Japanese investors chase for yield, FX traders trend to anticipate the repatriation operations (unwinding of yen carry trade) via speculative purchases of the Japanese currency and further enforcing it upwards. I expect the release of Japan's industrial production, consumer demand and GDP growth data due in 1-2 months to act as the catalyst for eventual yen weakness, which will likely drive USDJPY about 3-5% from current levels (85-86) but unlikely to go beyond that. PROSPECTS OF COORDINATED INTERVENTION are stronger than ever now that markets are approaching "Worse Case Scenario" territory. This means the whipsaws breaking the shorts are more than likely, as was seen in 2007 and 2008.

Seasonal yen weakness in April occurring after the conclusion of pre-fiscal year end repatriation is also likely to weigh on JPY in Q2. Buying USDJPY near the latest all-time lows may be produce a quick 70-100 pips, but maintaining a consistent success in such a volatile markets in the face of interventions, rumours and disasters could be dangerous, especially in a world of 50 or 100-1 leverage. If we saw 77, we may as well as 75 and 73 but chances of intervention shall grow stronger.

----- I cannot emphasize enough the relative consistency and reliability of EURUSD support near 1.3860-70s to rebound towards 1.3920-30s as the pair maintains its robustness in light of the dynamics I mentioned in the latest article.
http://bit.ly/hzMCKX

Ashraf
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
14 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 1:27
who got the balls to short G/J @127.30?