Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2012 12:00
Flask, jacek is right, you shoudn't attach too much credence to moving averages. They are basically lagging indicators. I would suggest you change your 50 DMA to 55DMA and same for weekly as per Ashraf's recommendation for forex. MA's will only work for S&R if enough big money traders are using the same settings. You should value your price action work together with trend lines before MA's.

Your chart link did not work. If you want to post a chart you can use the stockcharts.com facility. Take a look at some of my daily charts athttp://chart.ly/vptbxio where you will see how my MA's are integrated with other studies.

Also keep an eye on charts posted in this group by the linesmen, Jacek, Subway and others. Sir Ignore has his own use of MA's which is very effective on the 1 hr and 4hr timeframes.

If my suggestions dissapoint you can ask our Catnip what he thinks :-) gl and gt.
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2012 6:28
btw there are even some who put theirs and their subscribers financial lives at risk fading at such SR..:-) trend should always be your best friend:-)
jacek
Australia
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2012 6:18
Hey Flast.. wouldnt think too much about it.. as any SR is subject to failure.. particularly the more obvious ones:-)

Flast
Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 7, 2012 3:01
Thanks Daveo

My problem is not how to use them , my problem is when they are close to each other and there is a signal related to the price action and the price close from the moving averages ? should i ignore them when the market is not trending ?

second , i cant know when they are really broken some times the price stays above the moving average with 3 candle and then the price come back and close under the moving again .

this is my example , how the eurusd ignored the moving averages and crossed them very easy , i could enter short from 1.3270 but i didnt because of the price was close from them .

[urlhttp://www.m5zn.com] [imghttp://www.m5zn.com/uploads3/2012/4/6/photo/0406121804258c5ypj7oranfceah9ns55py.png[/img][/url]
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2012 0:46
Flast, one could have long discussions about MA's which basically reflect what price has already done. Using them for support and resistance we never know when they will be broken so you need to look for a confluence of MA's all lining up on say the weekly and daily timeframes. You can also use fibs and look for confluence of fibs and MA's to form powerful cluster of support or resistance. Add to this your horizontal pivot lines and trend lines to find as much confluence of several things all in a tight range.

Many traders will use the crossing of their 2 favourite MA's as an entry/exit signal. Using MA's alone is very simplistic and unlikely to have a high success record. Some traders will only trade in the direction of their MA slope combined with reading candles and price action. All these methods are valid, you have to find what works for you.
Flast
Hamburg, Germany
Posts: 8
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2012 20:53
I trade forex and i make pips consistently since 18 month , i use price action system , but i added to them the Moving averages , 21 EMA , 50 , 100 , 200 sma , but some times these Moving averages blocks me to take some successful trades depending on the price action , i have 2 problems with the Moving averages :

1- I dont know when the moving average is already broken , allot of times the price break the moving average go higher for several day and then come back under it again .

2 - what if there is good elements on the price action but the price is close to the moving averages should i take this trade or not

another question is , should i care for the moving averages if the price is on side way or not trending or not ? i use them always as dynamic support and resistance and target the price could approach them if they are away from the price .

and here is an example about what i mean , the eurusd reached the down trend line , the price couldnt break above the 1.3350 and i could enter short when the price broke the 1.3270 but i didnt because the price was so close to the 21 and the 50 moving average , and this happend with me allot these days because most of the currencies now are not in a clear trend .

i hope to get answer from you helps me thanks allot

I couldnt add the chart on the comment here , but for the eurusd for example i could enter short from the 1.3270 but i didnt because the 21 and 50 Moving averages was so close to the price

Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Apr 2, 2012 22:26
1Q4 COFER Data Shows Euro Positive Bias W/FX Adjustments



By Vicki Schmelzer



NEW YORK (MNI) - While data from the International Monetary Fund

showed the U.S. dollar's share of reported foreign exchange reserves was

up slightly in the fourth quarter of 2011, adjusting for currency

fluctuations, however, paints a somewhat different picture, with the

euro share improving overall despite the negativity of the Eurozone debt

crisis, analysts said.



Steven Englander and Andrew Cox, head of G-10 currency strategy and

currency strategist at CitiFX, maintained that to get a more accurate

view of current reserve holdings, the change in currency exchange rate

needs to be factored in.



"Movements in EUR holdings, for example, reflect both EUR buying/

selling and EUR appreciation/depreciation," they said in a research

note.



This can be viewed as "valuation adjusted accumulation," they said.



"EUR denominated reserves increased about 2.6% after adjusting for

currency effects, so the reported drop in EUR reserves is entirely due

to the drop in the EUR's value over the quarter," the strategists said.



"The 2.6% gain reflected a somewhat smaller gain in EM and a larger

percentage gain in developed market country EUR holdings," they said.



The Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves or

(COFER) data put total world FX reserves at $10.197 trillion, up from

$10.164 trillion in Q3.



Allocated reserves totaled $5.646 trillion in Q4, up from $5.594

trillion in Q3.



Unallocated reserves, or the reserves of countries do not report

the currency composition breakdown to the IMF, were $4.551 trillion at

the end of December, versus $4.570 trillion at the end of September.



In Q4, 62.1% of allocated reserves were in dollars and 25.0% were

in euros, compared to 61.8% and 25.7% in Q3 and 61.8% and 26.0% at the

end of Q4 2010.



The "other currency" (i.e. not yen, sterling or Swiss franc)

component, continued to edge higher in Q4, i.e. at 5.1% of total

allocated reserves, versus 4.8% in Q3 and 4.4% at the end of 2010.



The IMF used an dollar-euro rate of 0.7406 for Q3 and 0.7729 in

calculating the Q4 COFER breakdown, which translates into roughly

$1.3503 and $1.2938 respectively.



The euro closed September 30 at $1.3384 after trading in a $1.3381

to $1.3602 range and closed December 31 at $1.2945, after trading in a

$1.2902 to $1.2998 -- as per Reuters FX rates.



The COFER data does not offer insight into what China, with its

$3.2 trillion in currency reserves. China does not report the breakdown

of its reserve assets.



In January, Li Lianzhong, head of economics research at the

Communist Party's Central Committee's Policy Research Office, told a

forum in Beijing that 75% of the country's foreign exchange holdings are

in dollars.



"U.S. debt plus the U.S. dollar accounts for 75% of our foreign

exchange reserves," he said at the time.



Euros are thought to account for another 20% or so, with the

remainder made up of yen plus currencies such as sterling, Aussie, and

the Korean won.



Offering an alternative take, FX strategists at Standard Chartered

maintained in an early March research report that China had 55% of its

total reserve holdings in U.S. instruments at the end of 2011, down from

a peak of 71% in March 2009.



Pointing to revised TICS data, evidence is mounting that Chinese

demand for U.S. assets has been waning, they said.



"In 2011, we estimate that only 34% of China's new FX reserves went

into U.S. dollar assets, compared with 83% in 2010," the strategists

said.



Going forward, China is unlikely to keep buying dollars at the same

pace as in the past for three main reasons, Beat Siegenthaler, currency

strategist at UBS, said in a research note Monday.



First, "capital outflows are increasingly becoming an issue" and

second, "FX liberalization has move up the political agenda, resulting

in less interventions," he said.



Finally, "the ongoing internationalization of the renmimbi" will

likely "blur the picture" in terms of the direction of capital account

flows," Siegenthaler said.



China is not the only country looking to diversify its assets; so

is South Korea.



In its 2011 annual report, released Friday, Bank of Korea noted

that the country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $14.831 billion to

$306,402 billion as per the end of 2011 from end 2010.



Of the total, $298.2 billion was in foreign accounts, up $11.3

billion from 2010 levels.


Sir Ignore
United States
Posts: 3068
13 years ago
Mar 30, 2012 13:59
AL.....would not draw the conclusion from this article that the dollar 'threatened civilization'..(but the contrary).....perhaps not an accurate characterization, and not unbiased..
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 28, 2012 11:28
Greenback Planet: How the Dollar Conquered the World and Threatened Civilization as We Know It (
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204777904576651393209016936.html


Ashraf
forextrader
vologda, Russia
Posts: 127
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2012 11:16
Euro/usd target 1.28 by end march... Aud/Usd 1.04 by end March