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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
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Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Mar 17, 2010 0:30
I'd better jump in soon....
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Mar 17, 2010 0:30
Great - got it Ashraf- exactly your thoughts I was looking for and appreciate
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2010 23:19
Mandi, Rob,

Yen is weakening for the very reasons I stated in the first IMT of today. But as we get close to end of March, we may see yen strength from Japanese repatriation as well as from any equity correction.

Rob, yes PBOC hikes would be good for yen but also good for USD. hence Yen will show least strength against USD. Therefore USDJPY eyes 91.70 and even 92.30

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2010 22:50
Hey Ashraf,

Glad I had the same view on USD/JPY as you do - though I said a bit higher - 92.30's --- I'm learning, which is reflected in my account balance (both ways) --- anyhow --- would not a Chinese rate hike cause a massive case of risk aversion and hence Yen strength across the board? I'm a little hesitant about going against Yen because of China. Obv. the Jap. gov't should be Yen negative, but if China surprises... Thanks for your time - Rob
mandiwie
kartitsch, Austria
Posts: 69
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2010 18:56
Why do you think, Yen is weakening: recently there have been two decent sell offs pund/yen and euro/yen in connection with falling stocks

The stocks are in my mind threatend by the imminent danger of withdrawing liquidity from the markets, money is much to cheap.

quantitative easing policy is in my mind since a longer period the main reason for rising stocks, stocks don't rise fundamentally but because of the possibilty of betting with cheap money. Am i wrong ?


The correlation stronger yen and falling stocks is for me possible at any time ?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2010 17:33
USDJPY seen rising to 91.70s w/in next 2 weeks

Ashraf
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2010 2:52
The yen is caught in the middle between attempts at monetary expansion by a weak government and a slowing global recovery that still favours the yen when the risk is off.Think more than anybody they are now desperate for some sort of reminbi revaluation,china now being the biggest export market for japanese goods.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Mar 16, 2010 1:06
AVG, 1-hr double top is too short term. Euri better short vs USD than against JPY as Japanese are doing their best to weaken yen ahead of fiscal year end repatriation flows, which tend to be JPY positive.

Rob, see what i told AVG. I see more yen weakness in April, and 92.30s sounds viable. But careful.


Callum, Of course. if they REMOVE "low rates ... extended period" that would definitely be very good for USD, but best way to play that would be against european currencies. That would be very negative for stocks, which will be positive for Yen. It is unlikely they will remove that mantra.

The KEY HERE is whether Hoenig is the ONLY one disagreeing with this mantra about low rates. if he is joined by more dissenters, that would ALSO very negative for stocks, boosting USD and JPY against European currencies.

I hope this clears things up. I mentioned this in my IMT on Friday. Please go back and read that.

Ashraf


Ashraf
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
15 years ago
Mar 15, 2010 17:07
Hi Ashraf, I am hoping to get your views on the USDJPY levels on the basis of _possible_ rally of USDX upon the FOMC tomorrow. Would change in the stance of the "extended period" of interest-rate or otherwise speculation drive the USDJPY higher (or lower)?

Thanks, Callum
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
15 years ago
Mar 15, 2010 8:34
very nice entry point would be 123,88..
23,6 fibo (119,66-125,172) on h4..former resistence..
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