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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
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catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 19:26
Discount rate hike may influence short term Tsy yield and if the spread is constant rise 10 y yield, too.
But that should add to USDx. I don't think CDS would rise. Interesting however is the spread of Tsy to corporate bonds. If corporate continue to "sell better" than Tsy AND the recovery hope does not come true then it could mean USDx to drop. I have a lot of US based friends. If their view is correct then
the recovery doesn't have legs it is still between lame and limping.
mandiwie
kartitsch, Austria
Posts: 69
15 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 17:55
Does not a discount rate hike will also cause a rise in the price of US credit default swaps and a rise in the yields for debts, especially treasury bonds ? and could therefore be harmful for the USD ?

Confidence in the sustainibilty of job growth (with 50k census jobs) is not proven

considering the facts
loss of over 8 million jobs over the two last years
an joblessrate U6 at 17.5%
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 0:32
spec, if neither a US rate hike nor the 1st net increase in US jobs since Dec 2007 isn't enough to prolong the rally in the dollar then i dont know what will. Meanwhile, EU still playing fotsie w/ greece.

Thats what i said at my last interview on CNBC.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 3, 2010 17:45
ashraf, how do you expect dollar to move after the emergency meeting on monday if they hike the discount rate by 25bp? Because there was little overall benefit to the dollar on friday even though it was bank holiday.
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 15:48
Macrosam
I agree with you good luck with your trading
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 15:47
Macrosam
I agree with you. Good luck with our trading.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 14:42
I wish I could attach my own charts. I was not surprised to see a USD sell off at 82.00 as it would have been a nice round resistance number. I was prepared to see USD sell off to 80.65 if necessary, but previous resistance of 80.85 now looks to be support. I think 82.00 will be retested and broken and that USD could see 86.00-87.00 eventually. That does not mean it will not sell-off in between that time but as long as the uptrend line remains in tact, I see this occurring.
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 14:38
Mac
If the fed raises the discount rate on monday we should see the dollar strengthen ? Do you think we may be putting in a dollar bottom on this correction?
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 14:29
The USD bounced off previous resistance @ 80.85 now looks to retest 82.00 and perhaps challenge 83.00. The uptrend line is still clearly intact (from Dec 2009) but we shall see.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 21:14
ASHARAF

there are severals?
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