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Speculators' Futures FX Positions
The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
$640 is a major low, 76% retracement of the low from July 2005. Oil foundation stands at $48-55. Careful from Sterling. 50-bp rate cut this week is assured. talk of a 75-bp move.
Ashraf
do u mean that we might see oil higher again? what do u mean by rally exactly plz and if u have some targets for gold and oil
thanks
Nice to hear from you. GBP remains more of a short-term bearish play during each intermittent gains. How war more ill it go? It is time for a sharp rebound to as high as $1.75, but I dont think we have seen the lows yet. $1.45-1.46 remains very plausible. More rate cuts ahead by the Bank of England. 50-bps seen this Thursday.
Best
Ashraf
I still recall ur quote when u said " GBP will be the biggest loser in 2008" , that was back in the end of 2007 and again usaid the same in 2008... I always follow ur comments and its really really helpful.
D u think the GBP still going to the 1.50 -1.45 this year ?
regards
I prefer gold to oil. Im not an expert is oil but id say it could drop as low as $55. $45 is a major low. If you want to speculate in commodities, you're better off doing it in Gold, which i consider better favored than oil. As I said before, within the next 3 months, we should see a major rally in metals.
Ashraf
what about oil prices, another record low for the oil and the question is how much lower will it go ?
in the next couple of weeks where do u expect it to go to the upside and to the downside too ?
thanks
Ashraf