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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
my thesis is simple
USD will be invested in EUR dominated stocks as hedge looking for big yield.
But for large scale investment the EUR stock index is too high and EURUSD is too high.
Just make a chart pricing for ex. German Dax 30 in USD and Gold in EUR.
All silver mining stocks are at critical marks. XAUUSD runs inverse to USDx one cannot make profit with Gold. But stocks, oh yes. DAX30 can, in USD, double by ye. of course this holds for some emerging markets as well. Indonesia India ...
We cannot trade China stocks in Shanghai this is big potential given China appreciated yuan by 10%.
http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/5175/Euro
I don't mean any disrespect to the Mr. Osborne, but just to point out how even some of the best in the business, sometime can be sooooooo wrong. Besides the bad call for Eur/Usd, it is useful to read the article and reflect on the sentiment, then and now. There is one thing that is common for both situations - just about everybody is on the one side of the trade. That was just about 100 days ago, and we all moved to the opposite extreme.
b.
the export consortium is back
USD continued selloff anymore. EURUSD parity by ye has now probability 0.4