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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:
EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
ندوة سويسكوت مساء الثلاثاء مع أشرف العايدي
لا تفوت ندوتنا الإلكترونية مساء الثلاثاء الساعة 10 مساءً بتوقيت الإمارات
Anyway, well done. I left an order in for 1.6223 before I went to sleep, not thinking it would even get that high really. LOL. If I'd been awake I could have taken profit manually, but my TP was too long, and then it went skywards again. Still, I'm reasonably happy to wait for it. Remember that Ashraf has pointed out that cable gains in the morning of the London/Europe session are very often lost in the afternoon, or towards the end of the NY session (not sure of the exact times, but that's the general pattern). And while these are not "normal times" (when is it ever?), it has been following something like that pattern recently. On a purely "reversion to the mean" basis, I could see it easily getting back to 1.62 today.
There is a technical analysis video on Cantos Charts today called 'Currency pairs on the move' that is predicting an all time high for the AUD/USD over the next 18 months. Too long a trading period for me but interesting to get a different perspective.
http://www.cantos.com/charts
Really appreciate your comments and open dialog to get me further thinking. I too would like to be bullish, but perhaps bracing myself for a potential sharp correction as market shrugs off US politics, China, Dubai, PIGS, et al. On top of that, couple of other key factors that adds provide further significant pressure on AUD:
1. Japan. Dubai's first news during thanks-giving was classic when JPY went 14 year high, with AUD getting most sold against the JPY -- more than the AUD/USD. Major JPY strengthening, as we've seen eg, with the break of USD/JPY below 90 handle earlier in the week, and the AUD/JPY break below 80 handle momentarily yesterday between the Geithner testimony and FOMC. A major structural shift to JPY strength could also put more weight could provide major sell off of AUD/USD?
2. Gold. Where are the Gold Bulls? The likes of Jim Rogers and India seems to have become tight-lipped about Gold in past 2 months. At least I haven't seen anything in media. Maybe waiting for the break below 1070, and then buying physical gold in the lows? I also haven't heard any more India's interest with the rest of Gold from IMF - again - its all super quiet? Perhaps this silence will continue whilst Gold toys above 1070 and below 1100. A break below could also potentially drag AUD
Having said that, given the Asian session following Obama's state of union address had propped AUD/USD above the 90 handle -- perhaps speculators now have the momemtum to push the aud/usd higher ahead of the RBA rate announcement?
Callum
I agree with everything you wrote. The volatility in aussie seems to be increasing, and the MACD is weakening also. I'm not sure there is enough "evidence" for a 5th rate increase BEFORE more talk of USD rate hikes, which would be severely negative to aussie.
Also, Obama will be reiterating U.S. banking reform in a few hours in State of the Union, then a pro-USD U.S. GDP report on Friday. Lots of trading ranges coming up.
I believe the next NFP on the first Friday in Feb will be pro-USD, further adding to aussie pressure.
I would like to be bullish on aussie, but remember it also was the best performing G-10 currency last year. What are the odds it can repeat?l
This week, the PPI data was -ve while the CPI data was better than expected, although not extremely great, but resulting in the 80% expectation of rate hikes from 60%. Other key factors that could weigh in to a neutral position could include
* Poor housing data upon cut-back of Govt stimulus / 1st home buyer program
* China. Although it seems like China is going to grow faster and guzzle up more of commodities from Australia, Bank's cuts in lending could weigh into the Aust's commodity led growth story.
* US Politics.
Thus, if the RBA doesn't raise interest rates, this would totally create a major disappointment to those who had priced in the rate hike. That could potentially be the trigger to move aud/usd below the Christmas eve low?
On the other hand, if it is able to hold above the 23.6% fibo (8950) between highs and lows of 2008, and if the RBA does raise interest rates, AND their comments come hawkish / or suggestion unprecedented 5th rates (lots of ANDs already), this could give it the prop needed to re-test the key resistance above 93 at the back of the long-term dollar-parity hype?
Obviously US upcoming US politics and news could significantly change this....
Ashraf