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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:
EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
ندوة سويسكوت مساء الثلاثاء مع أشرف العايدي
لا تفوت ندوتنا الإلكترونية مساء الثلاثاء الساعة 10 مساءً بتوقيت الإمارات
I agree with your assesment. My point is there was NO fundamental reason for the 400 pip explosion in GBP last week, nor for EUR to rally to 1.4475 last night. Although long term I am not particularly bullish on $USD, in short term I am.
The "perception" is that the FED will raise rates sooner than later, hence the strengthening in USD first quarter of 2010. However, I personally do not believe the FED will raise rates until late 2010, if that. The reason? They know (along with the PPT) that if rates are raised, say goodbye to the U.S. Stock Market. And all they care about are stock prices 'cuz they have the public duped into believing a recovery is on the way because stock prices are higher. However, the missing piece to the puzzle is stock prices are only higher because of PPT intervention. Stocks rose 60 plus % from their lows in a very short term. The market is about to tip over and go down again. When this happens, people will flood into the USD.
To have a legit shot at recovery, the unemployment numbers MUST start bering reduced. a levelling off is NOT good enough. A levelling off will only represent a stabilization in the economy. No reason for stocks to be 60% higher. The NFP number will on Friday will show exactly this, "stabilization" in the unemployment rate. This will be construed short term as USD positive.
Ride the USD train for a month, then reassess. In the meantime, any manipulation higher of GBP and EUR should be used to establish (additional) shorts). And manipulation is the only reeason these two twins rise these days.
we all know the eurusd trade according the stance of the us production economy and that on european side the economic indicator are accomodating the pair due to a simple fact that in europe its an INTRACOMMUNITY exchange.
dont get ur point but i am very interesting by your says
if weak dollar was good for US economy why would they reinforce the dollar? if nothing goes right in the us economy why buying dollar, we all know hte eurusd trade a
i read an article on PPT sounds interesting but what is the purpose of it?
i reiterate my question? are they in dc or new york?
and the PPT are not in newyork.
Good point, but allow me to ask who orchestrates the short squeezes? Answer-the "money takers", er, "market makers". Quite honestly, the manipulation in FX far exceeds any other market.
Ashraf posted the link to the Plunge Protection Team on his Twitter page. The PPT has been around since '89, manipulating beloved U.S. stock prices higher. Yet the PPT is small potatoes with respect to how big a move percentage-wise they can orchestrate as opposed to FX Dealers in a highly-leveraged market with limited liquidity as we had last week. hence, the gross 400 pip move in GBP. Merely orchestrated to square books at the end of the year, and run stops on the unsuspecting.
what if this eurusd big toys were just short sqeeze and not market maker manipulations.
Unfortunately what most traders "say" and what most traders "do" have little correlation. Just the same as fundamental analysts, who are always late to the party because they cannot/don't know how/refuse to understand even a shred of technical analysis.
In the micro-short term, markets move in wierd and inexplainable ways. USD strengthening against CHF and weakening against JPY? Simply market-makers moving the Jell-O around the plate running stops.
Because of the leverage in FX, sometimes it is harder to see through these forests and hold a position "longer" term in order for the trade/position to work out.
Just look at the lovefest with GBP last week. Simply astonishing the near 400 pip in one-trading move up which was orchestrated by the "money'takers". Now come on, there is absolutely ZERO fundamental reasons to be long GBP, yet they used their boy to EUR/GBP to run stops and wreak a one-day storm on the GBP shorters.