Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:
Speculators' Futures FX Positions
The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
Loved your (Qin) comment, "...and I do have a full time job". We take you for granted, don't we? *smiles* But hey, we all love you and wouldn't be making (more than) half the money we do...w/o you! At least I'm happy w/ whatever b & b you provide me.
Now, RADU my friend...I can't dare go against Ashraf's analysis/comments (his analytical start is my analytical limit *modest*)...but allow me to be a bit aggressive. I believe we will see $66.50 too.
- The markets just DO NOT want to go beyond $70
- The US inventories rose 2.5m barrels last week
- OPEC recently gave a negative price outlook (backed their not-so-cool 6m barrels excess capacity - at $147 last year, EC was 3m)
- Yeas, the Euro zone is out of recession...but the US retail sales showed a weaker data today.
Look, Ashraf can tell better tell why oil is playing table tennis around the $70 mark...but traders often look for excuses to raise prices - momentarily! $68 may, and WILL, be seen early next week (though they may decide to take profits on the weekend). But I'll stick to my $66.50 forecast..
Asad
its shocks that tend to cause short and sharp pullbacks and that you can never fully predict. for example, lehmans collapse was not anticipated and neither was the actual depth of global liquiduty freeze. now unless we get some kind of HUGE shock i cant see stocks pulling back in excess of 10% from current levels. shocks will come im the form of rising interest rates, rising oil prices, removal of ultra loose monetary policy etc and a wave of bank defaults.
challenges welcome
Hello Ashraf ,
Hey ereryone
In the new light of the Germany and French GDP"s growth , do you maintain your view about oil will brake again under 70 and even will hit 68 ? and maybe a opinion about ICE"s brent oil ?
Best regards
Radu
Ashraf
Thx
Gunjack
I am full appreciate you frankly speaking. Recently Forex market is very choppy and unpredictable. And this is the main reason, I stick with my long term view and strategy----only short USD when it rally.
Good luck everyone!!!
Best regards
Qin
Ashraf