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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 18, 2008 19:12
Comments: 23
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Implications of Gold's Rise Relative to Oil

In recent months, I warned of the ominous implications of a rebounding gold/oil ratio. Yesterday, gold further outpaced oil in relative terms, giving more credence to the thesis of intensifying declines in US fundamentals.
 
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Mar 7, 2011 21:35
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Oct 9, 2008 1:18
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/08/gold-vs-oil/
Roberto
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 26, 2008 19:51
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080926/mint_gold_coins.html
US Mint halts sale of gold coins due to soaring demand
harmonycptl
California, United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 23, 2008 6:26
The CAD/JAP Monthly is extremely topish as well.

I might go long on a very small lot with tight stops. If the 107.3 mark can be broken there is no resistance to 122 which would form a classic double top.

Still placing main focus on GBP/USD ready to short - hard resistance is being encountered at 1.863/64 range possible reversal beginning with shooting star formation on 240 minute chart
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Sep 23, 2008 6:03
Jason,

Regarding your wanting to long CADJPY based on further gains in oil, I would not jump on this trade due to the increased possibility of a BANK OF CANADA RATE CUT at the October 21 meeting. With the US economy increasingly strained, North of the Border is struggling across the board with the exception of oil driven Alberta. Yes, they did have a few stronger than expected job reports, but combining risk aversion, yen strength and US weakness, CAD may be in for some hard times.

WEELY CADJPY CHART looks technically toppish, with gains limited at 103, but ample downside room towards 100 and 99.30.

WILLIAMS % R looks BEARISH both in Daily and Weekly.
harmonycptl
United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2008 23:06
Steve, Ashraf

Have you recently traded the CAD/JPYcross? It is currently in consolidation of recent bullish trend and at the low range of yesterdays highs. Also sensitive to the volatility of Oil.

Thinking of going long if there is a dip to 101.60 - 101.70 range.
harmonycptl
California, United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2008 22:56
To All:

Any effect on the GBP from rising Oil?
Nat Gas is still relatively unchanged vs. Oil and GBP is a high prodcer of Oil, and Cosumer of Nat Gas.

Also, will the U.S political climate further drag on the Dollar - Taliban/Pakistani Army Terror upswing in Pakistan, Electoral discomfort and Lame Duck CEO at Home?

240 Minute Chart shows potential Evening Star - Tweezer top foming at new highs, potential reversal formaing.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2008 22:27
Steve, Jason,

I agree with Steve about GBPUSD being a great sell at $1.86 and remains so until $1.8480s. We will get the CIPS surve from the UK this week, and these may prove GBP negative. AUD longs may also be looking at 87 cent as a medium target. Yes, USD is deeply negative, but it is the least negative against GBP.

Alternatively, GBPAUD and GBPJPY may be good shorts too.
harmonycptl
United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2008 22:09
Steve:

Fundamentals are still suporting a bullish sentiment on GBP/USD: Carry and Bond trades, combined with expectations of Fed easing and possible commidity inflationary pressures.

The Fed and Treasurey is basically caught in a vice between maintaining capital inflows (Treasury sales pricing) and maintaining credit markets through easing.
Foreign investment is viewing US Treasuries as relatively more risky leading to demand for better pricing on Yields. At the same time LIBOR rates are climbing, inducing credit disruption in the commercial markets.

Technicals show that GBP/USD could reach as high as 1.87 (2 day old highs), before Bear correction, a break below 1.84 would indicate possible shifting sentiment. However sentiment is very Bearish on the USD so caution is advised.Given the record incease in WTI today, I think that Ashraf's advice on Gold is sound.
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Sep 22, 2008 20:57
Time to short GBP/USD? Too high now 1.8614 at 4 p.m. Any thoughts?