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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 18, 2008 3:15
Comments: 1310
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This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 22:40
not every single FX move is explained by fundamentals. Last week's GBPUSD rally was partially boosted by heavy short covering of GBPUSD positions by failed hedge fund Galleon as they unwound positions to raise cash

Ashraf
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 21:39


Vik ,

Sorry , was some delay , because i am long at usd/cad for a quick trade :)

I agree with you about chf weakness...for the moment i have a litlle long position on chf/jpy maybe just to be for every moment on my eyes...going short looks intersting but to hot to me for the moment...i will stay some moments to see the chf way

I will stay out from gbp these days ... is too unpredictibile right now for me

I take a look to gbp/cad...yes , i gott your point , could be something if it breaks 1.8 but , i don"t know , looks really exotic (15 pips spread on my platform) and volatile...i must think a few

GL and keep in touch
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 20:53
spec, gbp is not tradeable for me. If I am only able to justify moves after they have occurred then I stay away. One day we are bearish and the next day we say it is weak - both can't happen at the same time and at the same level. There is more to sterling's moves than this forum understands at this stage.

Radu, GBPAUD looks interesting on a break of 1.802 -but a pretty volatile pair to trade and one would be betting for AUD weakness and GBP strength. Look at the structure from Oct 7 to now.
nzvik
New Zealand
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 20:25
Radu, I got stopped at 90.5.

Will stand aside at this stage.

CHF has been very weak today, USDCHF gained 100 pips and had a range today of 150 pips - ATR is about 88 pips, so a big move.
Yen was also weak - but not as weak as CHF - USDJPY has a range today of only about 70 pips - and the move up today was only about 15 pips. the ATR is at 85 - so not much of a move.

I will wait now for a break above 91.5 to go long, may take a few days or more. Going short is more tricky so will not be looking for a short position in the next 2 to 3 weeks.

I will be interested in USDJPY if it breaks 92.50 by atleast 15 pips.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 20:12
nzvik, cable is a little confusing at present. But note that goldman is currently bullish on sterling and this was published on bloomberg today. not only that there may be quite a bit of raw sterling purchases going on by foreign investors as the pound remains very weak and makes a potentially cheap buy on a global basis for real assets such as real estate in UK. But I think goldmans statement today may have influenced.
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 19:56



Vik ,

For me was aproximatly the same : my new tp was hit in 90.99...but let me understand : you are ( again ) long or you will be long again ?
nzvik
New Zealand
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 19:28
GBP looks the strongest today relative to the EUR, AUD ...

Could be getting ready for a bounce to kill the GBP shorts again as happened 2 weeks back. keeps everyone confused - is the 400 pip drop on friday merely a correction in the 1000 pip move up and the uptrend will continue now, or was the 1000 pip bounce the correction in the down trend from early Aug and we go lower now.
Equities tumble and the dollar strengthens against all except GBP. I thought GBP was the weakest out of all !!

Good luck to whoever is trading GBP and its crosses. GBP currently is not for the amateurs, so I will stay away and let the pros play it for the time being.
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 18:52
Spec do you see GPB/JPY hitting 147 on risk aversion ? Cant undrestand why GBP is strengthening whilst dow is falling.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 18:37
Radu

Just got up - and discovered I got stopped out for a small profit. did peak over 91.5 then came back. Next time it breaks 91.5 by atleast 20 pips - the breakout will be quite strong and clean. I'll be waiting.

Vik
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 26, 2009 16:58
Cable once again fails at that 1.64.

Ashraf
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