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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 18, 2008 3:15
Comments: 1310
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 18:03
Yes, Bikram. you can listen to eat for a week thereafter.

Ashraf
Bikram
Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 9
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 17:07
Hi Ashraf, Quick question, if i register for the webinar and cannot see it live can i get on it later on, would there be a recorded version.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 16:56
Bikram,

Attendees of my Dublin seminar remember what was said about $GBPUSD peaks during later UK session before pullbacks.

Ashraf
Bikram
Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 9
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 16:43
Thanks Ashraf, for the explanation, as I mentioned earlier I am new to FX trading, therefore got a little confused but your explanation makes sense. Thanks once again.

Good Day
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 16:25
may i add that the dollar is probably funding mainly high yielding currencies rather than stocks. Otherwise the dollar should rise if the carry trade into stocks is being unwound. This is just my simple theory.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 16:20
xaron there is a fight between risk aversion dollar demand and yield differentials between US and rest of the world. Whilst although stocks went down, the market dumped the dollar based on its expectations on fed interest rates. If news was positive dollar may have risen as markets become less bearish on dollar being used as a funding currency. It is quite clear that markets want rate hikes to support a dollar rally but again the relationships are becoming more random in my opinion.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 16:17
EVERYBODY READ THIS AND REREAD IT AGAIN

THESE ARE CALLED WHIPSAWS (REBOUNDS/SNAPBACKS ETCC) AND THEY OFTEN HAPPEN IN VERY VOLATILE DAYS LIKE NFPS. NOT EVERY WHIPSAW HAS TO HAVE A FUNDAMETAL EXPLANATION. HEDGE FUNDS, CTAs etcc GET IN AND OUT OF POSITIONS ALL THE TIME, END OF DAY SQUARING ETCC ALL OF THIS HAPPENS WITHOUT A NECESSARY CHANGE IN FUNDMTALS .

one cannot say USD is no longer safe haven just because GBPUSD bounced back 100 pips then revert back to the argument and change yoru mind once it loses 100 pips. DONT GET SUCKED IN THE ACTIONS OF OTHERS AND KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BIG PICTURE. otherwise your days are numbered.

More importantly, you MUST KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL (resistance levels i mentioned in INT, right shoulders etccc).

Ashraf
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 15:24
Well I hoped it would work that way, that we return to the "good old" fundamentals where risk aversion doesn't necessarily mean a strong dollar. Looks like it slowly loses it's state as "safe haven".
Bikram
Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 9
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 15:18
Thanks Xaron, I meant I was looking for a reason for a falling USD. Is it bcos of the umemployment higher than expected news?
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
15 years ago
Oct 2, 2009 15:06
It's not the GBP which shoots up but the USD which takes a dive. ;)
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