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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 18, 2008 3:15
Comments: 1310
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This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily GBP (British Pound) chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jun 5, 2009 8:21
Hey, Ashraf
UBS has some comment on EUR/USD recently. They think EUR/USD will start declining from here, because the bond yield is rising.
Personally, I am still bullish on EUR/USD.

What do you think about EUR/USD, will it really break 1.4 and ahead to 1.3 in three months?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 5, 2009 8:09
also may i add i feel it will take more than a day or so do break below 1.60 as such a key level.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 5, 2009 8:08
seems like broad sterling weakness is settling in rather than dollar strength. investors are getting scared about political uncertainties in the uk. could this be a temporary weakness? my opinion is we may go sideways for a bit from here subject to equity/political moves.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 5, 2009 7:08
jt, Look into shorting sterling vs USD while going long Aussie vs USD as a potential hedge in the event that stocks do NOT fall. but even if stocks fall, we could see Aussie recover next week.

Ashraf
jt
United States
Posts: 15
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 23:58
Ashraf,

Thanks!

what pairs should benefit if the sterling goes south? I am looking at pound pairs ( usd, yen, swissie )

JT
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 23:28
jt, anytime the incumbent govt is at risk of being removed or resigning adds to uncertainty, which is bad for the currency of that country. Sterling looks to start a key reversal. more to be seen tomorrow.

Spec, we could hit 1.58 as early as tomorrow if markets panic from US payrolls and UK uncertainty remains.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 23:22
the pound has high chance of collapsing should it fall below 1.60 within next few days.
jt
United States
Posts: 15
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 22:49
how will the turmoil of the UK Gov. and the possibility of Brown resigning impact the Pound.. Is this a good short signal for the short term?

Jonathan
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 21, 2009 16:10
Pipples, interesting question. some are already thinking the same as you are regarding the worst having happenned to sterling and that the potential for capital flows in uK property markets are substantial. That is WHY i am not keen on shorting CABLE, but more likely to short it against JPY and against EUR at the highs. Nonetheless, i still see risks in the real Uk economy as well as its nationalized banks.

if you orderd my Workbook, then take a look at that 20-year cycle chart in cable. It says a lot !


Ashraf
Pipples
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 21, 2009 16:01
Ashraf. Do you think GBP might be seen as a 'safe' (rather than risk) play now - as already been knocked down alot compared to other major currencies, etc. Just looking at its performance against AUD CAD JPY USD - even on a market turn and S&P news.
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