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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 15, 2009 16:11
Comments: 28
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More Risk Aversion til Pres. Inauguration

Prolonged risk aversion is expected to ensue until Tuesdays presidential inauguration brings in a temporary feel good rally.
 
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Rick
Texas, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jan 20, 2009 9:04
Ashraf,

Is the fundamental picture adequate to support the fall in the GBP, near 900 pips in 24 hours? Do you expect a significant rebound at the open of US trade corresponding with the Obama inauguration? Or can we expect the continuance of the GBP fallout?
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jan 19, 2009 23:13
Ashraf,

GBP/AUD strong uptrend, EUR/AUD strong downtrend, is it possible? Quite ambiguous!. Your thoughts pls. Tks.
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jan 19, 2009 19:50
Ashraf,

One analyst see strong uptrend of gbp/aud to 2.3000 from now 2.15 area. What is your thoughts on that. Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jan 19, 2009 17:44
Hi Rob, you are right. Both EURUSD and cable should rise on such a rally. But here's the thing... everybody is now talking about the "relief rally" that i doubt how much relief the speech can bring. Am i changing my mind about the rall? probably not, but perhaps tomorrow's UK inflation figures and the aftermath of the S&P spain downgrade could rule the sell orders in EUR and GBP. Remember how rapidly EURUSD fell upon the release of the flash estimates for Dec CPI 3 weeks ago.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jan 19, 2009 16:01
Hi Ashraf,

Are the new levels just posted for tomorrow taking into account the "Obama feel-good rally?" Is EUR/USD 1.3020 and GBP/USD 1.4470 seen taking hold before the rally or after it fizzles out? Seems they should both rise a fair amount with an equities rally.

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jan 17, 2009 14:14
GEORGE, I don't use the TICS as a short-term guide for the market due to its 2-month lag. But yes, it does raise a red flag for the long term i.e 3- 6 months ahead.

STEVE, When i issued EURCHF negative bias to CMC clients it was done last week when it was at 1.4770. When I issued it 2 days later to my website the pullback ran out of steam. Daily H&S remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.49, followed by the neckline at 1.52. Get out at 1.4650.

FRANCIS, Cable could jump to as high as $1.52 before the next drop. watch equities in next week's data vacuum.

Ashraf
Steve
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jan 17, 2009 13:36
Ashraf,

You mentioned EUR/CHF days ago, head & shoulder formation, going down. But, unfortunately, EUR/CHF up a lot. What is the high? Is head & shoulder formation still valid? Thanks.
francis
GuangZhou, China
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jan 17, 2009 11:19
Ashraf,

Thanks for your Splendid Analysis, what about the GBP/USD? i see the rate at 1.4470 Area have a support, Whether may Approach Upward to 1.5080 Opportunity.

Regards,
George
Johannesburg, South Africa
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Jan 17, 2009 8:07
Hi Ashraf, do you see the deterioration in Fridays TIC flows as a significant red flag for the usd?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Jan 16, 2009 18:07
ROB, USDJPY has to break above 91 and then close above 91.50 for us to start taking it seriously. 4-hr chart still looks bearish.

JAMSHED, there are firms that trade CNY off the non-deliverable contracts but the spreads are enormous and maybe not worth the leverage. You can look them up online. Regarding my forecasts, I will consider that. But there's only so much I can provide for free on this website.

Ashraf
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