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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Apr 15, 2009 16:14
Comments: 40
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Selective Carry Trades in FX/Equities

Currency selection becomes more relevant on evolving risk appetite.
 
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Pipples
Yorkshire, UK
Posts: 34
16 years ago
Apr 21, 2009 14:34
Hi Ashraf. Do you still(?) think GBP will fair better than CAD & AUD over coming months? I reckon it's v. likely AUD and probably CAD will start to fair better then GBP - even in a continued stock downturn - at some point. Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 21, 2009 7:28
Ho, the easy answer is that as long as stocks remain under pressure, Aussie will lose some more ground against EUR and GBP. But taking AUDEUR rate by itself, it does show further recovery in the oscillators. Look out for a medium term target of 1.8700 from the current rate of 1.8460. 200-day MA at 1.8853

Ashraf
Ho
New York, United States
Posts: 26
16 years ago
Apr 20, 2009 21:55
Ashraf,

You have been great in calls of many pairs: gbp/usd, aud/usd etc. I need your advise on eur/aud, uptrend or downtrend, high high can it goes, also aud/usd downtrend? How low can it goes? Tks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 20, 2009 19:32
Rob, thks much. let's try to recoup the losses made in CAD calls of 2 weeks ago. the twitter updates are simply less formaly & more aggressive calls. We may see Dow close down 300 pts today and Asian trading will push more losses in aussie and kiwi trades. I still like aussie long term but things need to retreat.. especially ahead of Aussie CPI Wednesday. Good Luck

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
Apr 20, 2009 19:08
Hey Ashraf,

Thanks so much for the GREAT calls on GBP and CAD last Friday! I'd be lost in the woods without a compass if I never saw you on Tech Ticker, then read your book, then followed your site. Lastly, I'm loving the Twitter excerpts. I'm sure you'll surpass famed Ashton Kusher's 1,000,000th twit in no time! Thanks for everything!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 20, 2009 10:14
Taha, no the bear market is not finished. bear markets have usually lasted for 3-4 years and we're ONLY in year 2. Yes, the data/news were not as bad as before but it does not mean the worst is over. stocks are already flaling and will continue to do so today. i expect the March lows to come out in end of Q2.

Ashraf
taha
Egypt
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Apr 19, 2009 14:25
Hi Ashraf ,
Do you think the worst is over or not yet ? and if the indices will retest the previous lows .
Please , correct me if i am wrong . in the last few weeks , the good news had bigger impact more than bad news . is that mean that the bear market rally is finished .
I apologize fro my English .
Thank you
Taha
Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 32
16 years ago
Apr 17, 2009 21:33
Ashraf

Yes NZD is weaker against most currencies ... AUD has had higher highs and stronger against USD compared to NZD .. will buy Aussie on a pullback ..

On a good pullback in equities will AUD get to 61 vs USD ?

Cheers

Frank
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 17, 2009 12:33
And Frank, have a look at the AUDNZD pair and that should clarify what i told you about NZD yesterday.
Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 17, 2009 12:32
Frank, Gold techs are worsening so we could see 840-850, but i remain bullish overall on gold and silver fundamentals. do not jump on the bandwagon on the stocks story yet.

Rob, we need to clear above 865-870. Dow is only +25% from March lows.. i remain skeptical.. take cover in selling GBP vs USD and EUR.

Ismail, this website as well as my book have plenty of analysis on why/when/how gold can rally along with USD. navigate around and get my book and you will see.

Best

Ashraf
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