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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Apr 27, 2009 15:55
Comments: 42
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Rising Yields Fight the Fed

Rising bond yields are further hampering the Fed's policy
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
May 4, 2009 17:45
f, But cable is once again failing at 1.50

Ced, going to have revise that eurusd resis to 1.3425 from 1.3414, which was today's high and the 23.6% retracement of the March climb (see my twitter update). Considering the ECB meeting on Thursday, Stress Tests on Thursday evening and US labor report on Friday, there should be plenty of room for volatility and 1.30 in EURUSD. I still expect 1.27 to occur around the time when markets retest the March lows later this summer. June-July.

Mikestiller, technically, 3.30% on the 10-year yield is a major level--38% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high an dis also the 55wk mov avg. Anything abobveb that level and close to 4% would mean more worries about debt borrowing and Fed will have to pull some new stunts on the Quant Easing front.
mikestiller
New York, United States
Posts: 9
11 years ago
May 4, 2009 16:43
Ashraf,

Is there a level you are watching on US 10 and 30 years which are "game changers" for gold and SPX? I guess I am looking for a level in yields in which equity buyers start to get concerned, reflation vs. inflationary feelings. Thanks
Ced
London, UK
Posts: 12
11 years ago
May 4, 2009 13:21
Hi Ashraf,

thanks for EURUSD resistance levels, what about support? What are chances we see EURUSD bellow 1.30 this week? Recently when I asked you mentioned that in short term you see EURUSD more closely to 1.26 than to 1.36.

Thanks
Ced
f
Brussels, Belgium
Posts: 25
11 years ago
May 4, 2009 7:49
Thanks Ashraf, I am also struggling to understand why GBP.USD continues to stay at these levels...
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
May 4, 2009 0:46
Ced, I don't expect EURUSD to breach above the $1.3415 resistance. But 1.3740 remains the hard to beat level. Major resistance FX markets are increasingly reluctant to move excessively into risk appetite trades. Look how stocks have failed to close to new highs these past few days. There are reports indicating that 14 of the 19 US banks will be ruled to need fresh capital as a result of the fresh tests.

f, we could see an attempt towards 1.50 yet bias remains to downside. Why would such a risk currency be allowed to rally in a week filled of potential event risk?

Ashraf
f
Brussels, Belgium
Posts: 25
11 years ago
May 1, 2009 19:21
Hello Ashraf, first of all I've been following you twitter post and I think it's great - thanks!

What is your view of GBP.USD going into the end of trading today and for next week... do you think the sustained levels will mean we will see a final push to the 1,50 level?

Have a nice weekend!
Ced
London, UK
Posts: 12
11 years ago
May 1, 2009 16:47
Hi Ashraf,

What impact you predict from mentioned stress test results and nonfarmpayrolls on EURUSD next week?

Thanks
Ced
gary
toronto, Canada
Posts: 19
11 years ago
May 1, 2009 16:01
i like this forum thingie. how long have people been trading currencies?? me 3 years.

G
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
May 1, 2009 15:16
Ho, place stop at 57.30-40 for nzdJPY. I just put my update this morning on the site as well as on twitter for nzdUSD saying resistance remains at 0.5780. we're now back down to 0.5660.

Ashraf
Ho
New York, United States
Posts: 26
11 years ago
May 1, 2009 15:07
Ashraf,

Things are changing so fast!! Do you still stand by short NZD/JPY, cap 57, target 50 in 1 week? Is it possible. Pls advise and update constantly. If not working, tell us to quit. Tks.