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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Dec 18, 2009 18:24
Comments: 80
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl

Time for US dollar to regain some composure, especially against the sterling, whose 2010 fortunes for the year appear dismal at best.
 
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Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:37
Hi Evan.

Not sure if the USD will reach parity to EUR as USD is in a long term structural downtrend though i guess one can never say never.

Xaron you could be right. I wonder if AUD could ever reach its much anticipated parity to dollar in Q1?
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:32
I can't imagine that the Dollar gains much further. The reason for my thinking is simple: It's in no interest of the US to have a raising Dollar. As long as even the US wants a weak Dollar (good for exports and their debts problems) I won't fight against there printing press.

You're right, we have some serious problems in the EU as well, but it's hard to fight against Heli-Ben. ;)
EvanRowe
Florida, United States
Posts: 25
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:30
Xaron, my knowledge of the short term move is limited, and my instinct agrees that such a fast move a near 10 cent drop in one month is a bit too quick. But I think EU zone is overhyped as a currency..and much has been borrowed out of USD and JPY. If global private equity and commodity markets implode, then a rush back into host currencies will occur. This will drive up the value. That's my thinking on it.
Steven Blyth
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:20
Hi again Evan

Golds a tricky one. Some say theres a bubble forming in precious metals and now may not be the time to invest in gold. RBS says the rally is unsustainable. On the other hand gold is becoming popular amongst reserve banks and Dennis Gartman is bullish. Some traders i am following are buying it at these levels though you can expect gold to have a multi-month consolidation. If you want to follow gold i'd recommend subscribing to Chris at www.thegoldandoilguy.com. I know Ashraf recommends him also.
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:20
That's not going to happen in my opinion. The Euro is just downtalked since its introduction but actually it's a success story compared to his short live.

But it's always nice to hear different opinions. :)

I think we will reach 1.55+ levels in Q1 2010 after it's clear that the FED won't hike anytime soon. And they won't do that if they are not 100% that the recession is over. They won't risk a double dip thing.

I agree that we might see 1.38 before but I think that the current levels are already totally overstretched (technically) and a correction is in the cards.
EvanRowe
Florida, United States
Posts: 25
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:13
Steven, over the next few years, I expect full parity between dollar and euro as euro falls into the perils of decentralized infighting and the imperial strength of the dollar rises. After that, who knows, but I think that's a period that must be phased through. But I really need some help on my month to month understanding..
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:06
Hi Evan.

Im watching for a USD consolidation begining 2010 or when USDJPY nails 93 around which there could be a meaningfull pullback with which you may consider adding to your USDJPY longs. From what ive read / heard EURUSD is likely to head further south during the year with fair value considered at 135 to the USD though i wouldn't know if 135 is an actual 2010 end of year forecast.(Ashraf is the expert.) GBP and EUR could sink by as much as 20% against the USD. (not my words)

Steven
EvanRowe
Florida, United States
Posts: 25
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 0:10
Anyways, I have another question: who thinks that this December 10 cent move against the euro is bound to correct a bit starting early in 2010? And who thinks gold will go up with the move?
EvanRowe
Florida, United States
Posts: 25
14 years ago
Dec 22, 2009 22:19
Said, I think we agree on many things, but there is some loss in translation. I do agree that emotions dominate reason or logic in human behavior. My thinking on how europe will move right is based on a variety of factors, the immigration debates being just one. It will be easier for rising european nationalists to appeal to nationalist nostalgia (creating anti-eu pressures) as well as targeting easier targets like workers with less social leverage... this can be offered as a false solution to the coming problems. Nobody knows the future, but that is my concern with the eurozone from a political and cultural standpoint.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Dec 22, 2009 20:24
evan
just to cite u some cities to see in germany; i just enjoy them few years ago.

dortmund karlsruhe hessen dresden trier fribourg ludwigshafen

and in france
AFFRIQUE with Two FF

u cant dislocate history and present days, it would be like investing without gauging
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