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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
will the ECB signal joining the expansionary policy started by the Japanese or the FED?
no sir, it will not.
it will still say that it will cnotinue on its path of normalizing / towards reducing liquidity in the banking system
this is an exact replay from spring / summer 2008
ECB had actually raised rates from 4 to 4.25 and then in panic followed the amercicans couple of months later.
Leave it to the Europeons to allow the crisis to escalate until panic and then try to apply band aid.
Euro above 1.50 will kill whatver growth that Eurozone might be planning to eke out in 2011.
ECB will do nothing for now, FED will print money, Dollar will go 1.5+ to the Euro. Oil will escalate above 100 and then panic will arrive in ECB.
FED is getting really trigger happy and ECB becoming too shy
The gyrations in the currency markets are all man made - or CB made
Would be best if they just leave the system alone and let the macro trends let the system clean itself out on its own time
my targetr of 1.4306 is reachable.
The EURUSD is now approaching an important symmetry target for at least a reaction at 1.4040 ish
Of course from time to time I trade outside of the system for ex with an OCO on GBP.
And now I wait for Trichet he is deeper in the box than Ashraf seems to assume
see for ex http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-06/trichet-exit-path-blocked-as-banks-stay-hooked-on-ecb-funds-euro-credit.html
the probability to lose is same as not trading at all ( you'll lose because of negative real interest) but not trading at all has zero probability to make profit.
Its a very simple system.
If forex trading is a game... we play to make pips and make it grow... it's not a guessing game or identifying which currency is strongest,weakest, etc... it's not a game of identifying who's in the podium or not... i guess you're missing the whole point... not really surprised to hear that kind of answer from you.... LOL.. :)
like i said you're trapped in your own world believing what you see and know is everything... wake up!! :)