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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
what i am proposing to the PBOC and efm in frankfurt is raising the standard and capital adequacy ratio till an extent coupled with cross border investment. this is what china do by buying japanese bond nothing to do with an escalating war or the " art of war" it s simply regional consolidation.
malaysia singapore nd indonesia was at the forefront in asia in cross border sector consolidation
your call could be right for a perfect market, but not for a reality driven by short term gains.
I agree with you, as soon as the topic Eurozone emerges again, the direction goes north
But for the time now QE intervention threats from BOJ and fresh liquidity for risk appetite prevail
Negative Fundamentals concerning Eurozone are not important at the moment - obviously
So 1.37 or 1.38 is the top or Euro? or 1.40 or even back 1.18? who knows except the market player or thieves!!
Hence from a fundamental viewpoint investors have less trust in EUR bonds than in US municipal bonds. The ultimate reason is that the USD is the world's trade currency, and reserve currency. Devaluating the trade currency would enforce co-devaluation otherwise an economy gets destroyed by cheap imports and decreasing competitiveness in export.
The core of my argument is the PIIGS cannot achieve reduction of debt relative of GDP only with austerity they need to rise GDP. But they cannot with a "strong" Euro. They need a weak currency. Germany is NOT able to compensate because 60% of its exports goes to eurozone economies. This why the Euro is doomed when USD devaluates and even more when PBOC hikes.
If you think EUR strength will go for ever thats impossible. USA and Europe cannot hold this for ever I hope catnip is right with all respect to ashraf . One question to all, can european industry hold very strong EUR and for how long? the problems in european countries are very huge for Germany to hold alone I think a soulion should be taken to rescue the economy for at least fundimental basics.
have biz idea for la puszy
holdin dat swiss